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beadboard/.agents/skills/trading-wisdom/.pattern_history.json

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{
"5f81eddef901": {
"pattern_id": "5f81eddef901",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Minimal trading frequency with passive index allocation preserves capital in sideways/slightly negative markets",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"index_fund",
"learning_qwen",
"qwen3_235b"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 15,
"confidence": 0.35,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"43119b674de2": {
"pattern_id": "43119b674de2",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Ultra-low trade count (4-6 trades) with high selectivity results in near-zero or zero losses in flat markets",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b",
"learning_qwen",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 15,
"confidence": 0.31999999999999995,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"af67c1b10c23": {
"pattern_id": "af67c1b10c23",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Index fund strategy of equal-weight allocation ($2000 per asset) with confidence=1.0 maintains capital neutrality when market moves are near-zero",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 6,
"confidence": 0.4,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"24357ebb6308": {
"pattern_id": "24357ebb6308",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High trade frequency (>100 trades/day) in flat/sideways markets leads to significant losses from fee drag and whipsaw - skill_aware_oss (155 trades, -$581), llama4_scout (225 trades, -$326), agentic_gptoss (176 trades, -$141)",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"llama4_scout",
"agentic_gptoss",
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"gptoss_20b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.06459026128266034,
"sample_size": 1684,
"confidence": 0.5700000000000001,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"b6e02d58b9e7": {
"pattern_id": "b6e02d58b9e7",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Conflicting directional signals on same asset (opening long then short on BTCUSDT within same window) indicates poor trend identification",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"gpt_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.21999999999999997,
"sample_size": 4,
"confidence": 0.28,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"150c5f325365": {
"pattern_id": "150c5f325365",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High-confidence (0.85+) trades with multi-timeframe bullish reasoning in a flat/slightly negative market result in losses",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.19999999999999996,
"sample_size": 139,
"confidence": 0.30000000000000004,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"7476befa34b2": {
"pattern_id": "7476befa34b2",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Agents using positive funding rate as bullish signal lose money - elevated funding with crowded longs leads to mean reversion against position",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.25,
"sample_size": 208,
"confidence": 0.25,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"f0f9739653e1": {
"pattern_id": "f0f9739653e1",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Overtrading with 'excellent 2:1 risk/reward' reasoning repeatedly fails when market lacks directional movement - this justification appeared in multiple losing trades across skill_aware_oss and agentic_gptoss",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12368839427662959,
"sample_size": 629,
"confidence": 0.5,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"025223f2688e": {
"pattern_id": "025223f2688e",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "sideways_flat: Reduce trade frequency dramatically; passive/index strategies outperform active trading by preserving capital from transaction costs",
"conditions": {
"regime": "sideways_flat"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.38,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"16696a9aa3cf": {
"pattern_id": "16696a9aa3cf",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "low_volatility_mixed: Avoid leveraged positions; small price movements (-0.02% to +0.09%) do not justify leverage costs and risk",
"conditions": {
"regime": "low_volatility_mixed"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.31999999999999995,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"271f0a31b6f8": {
"pattern_id": "271f0a31b6f8",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "sideways_flat: Mean-reversion strategies fail when there is no significant deviation to revert from; stay flat or minimal exposure",
"conditions": {
"regime": "sideways_flat"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.25,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"c441daad9c1d": {
"pattern_id": "c441daad9c1d",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Limit trades to <10 per 24h period in flat/sideways markets to minimize fee drag",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 15,
"confidence": 0.30000000000000004,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"ce5884dcc08b": {
"pattern_id": "ce5884dcc08b",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Avoid opening new positions when all major assets show <0.1% absolute movement",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 11,
"confidence": 0.21999999999999997,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"354354b5a4fb": {
"pattern_id": "354354b5a4fb",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "High confidence (>0.8) should require confirmation from actual price momentum, not just technical indicator alignment",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.7,
"sample_size": 20,
"confidence": 0.4,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d046ea43f780": {
"pattern_id": "d046ea43f780",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when market lacks trending behavior - reduce to 0.5-1% in flat regimes",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.65,
"sample_size": 139,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a7a65824ae5c": {
"pattern_id": "a7a65824ae5c",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as entry signal produces losses in flat markets - signal is designed for trending conditions",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.18146258503401358,
"sample_size": 294,
"confidence": 0.59,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"6b723bed1691": {
"pattern_id": "6b723bed1691",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Positive funding rate interpreted as bullish momentum is a losing signal - actually indicates crowded longs vulnerable to liquidation",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.3,
"sample_size": 208,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"fcdc3d83a3de": {
"pattern_id": "fcdc3d83a3de",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Relative strength divergence (one asset up while others down) as entry signal shows mixed results",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.45,
"sample_size": 79,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c45fcfc8339a": {
"pattern_id": "c45fcfc8339a",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Cutting losses early when 'market seems to be consolidating' is appropriate risk management in unclear conditions",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.6,
"sample_size": 15,
"confidence": 0.30000000000000004,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"262a71a21cba": {
"pattern_id": "262a71a21cba",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "SMA and MACD bearish signals for shorting fail when market is essentially flat (-0.02%)",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 50,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T11:23:59.256039",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6e4802ef3a4a": {
"pattern_id": "6e4802ef3a4a",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Ultra-low trade frequency (3-6 trades) with high selectivity results in near-zero or minimal losses in flat/sideways markets - qwen3_235b and learning_qwen both achieved ~$0 PnL with only 3-4 trades vs massive losses from high-frequency traders",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b",
"learning_qwen",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 13,
"confidence": 0.52,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7dfb014d49fe": {
"pattern_id": "7dfb014d49fe",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Index fund strategy of equal-weight allocation ($2000 per asset) with confidence 1.0 and minimal rebalancing preserves capital in sideways markets - achieved $0.00 PnL while active traders lost $1395",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 6,
"confidence": 0.5,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"62db0d71ff3b": {
"pattern_id": "62db0d71ff3b",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Passive holding without frequent position changes outperforms active trading when market moves are <0.1% - agents with <10 trades preserved capital while those with >100 trades lost $300-$580",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b",
"learning_qwen",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 13,
"confidence": 0.48,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c541468cd36b": {
"pattern_id": "c541468cd36b",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High-confidence (0.85+) trades with multi-timeframe bullish/bearish alignment reasoning produce losses in flat markets - skill_aware_oss repeatedly opened positions with 0.85 confidence citing 'strong bullish alignment' yet lost $581",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.06999999999999995,
"sample_size": 155,
"confidence": 0.53,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f20f019dfaad": {
"pattern_id": "f20f019dfaad",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Positive funding rate interpreted as bullish momentum signal leads to losses - llama4_scout repeatedly cited 'positive funding rate indicating potential upward momentum' while losing $326",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 225,
"confidence": 0.48,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"abd1702d7f23": {
"pattern_id": "abd1702d7f23",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Conflicting directional signals on same asset within short timeframes indicates poor strategy - skill_aware_oss opened both long and short on BTCUSDT with same 0.85 confidence, showing signal unreliability",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 155,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"8b732a3af401": {
"pattern_id": "8b732a3af401",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Mean-reversion strategies ('fading crowded longs', 'potential mean-reversion bounce') fail when market is truly flat with no significant deviation to revert from",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gpt_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.19999999999999996,
"sample_size": 6,
"confidence": 0.4,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e301e9a8b749": {
"pattern_id": "e301e9a8b749",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "sideways_flat: Reduce trade frequency to <10 trades/day; passive index allocation outperforms active trading; avoid leveraged positions entirely; wait for clear directional breakout before engaging",
"conditions": {
"regime": "sideways_flat"
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.52,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"61605d110d15": {
"pattern_id": "61605d110d15",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "low_volatility_mixed: When all assets show <0.1% absolute movement, avoid opening new positions; fee drag exceeds potential profit; technical signals (SMA, MACD, multi-timeframe alignment) produce false signals in this regime",
"conditions": {
"regime": "low_volatility_mixed"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.48,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"5d2a82fce004": {
"pattern_id": "5d2a82fce004",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "sideways_flat: Mean-reversion and momentum strategies both fail; only capital preservation strategies (hold cash, minimal index allocation) succeed",
"conditions": {
"regime": "sideways_flat"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"671b830c4a8b": {
"pattern_id": "671b830c4a8b",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Limit trades to <10 per 24h period in flat/sideways markets (all assets <0.1% movement) to minimize fee drag and whipsaw losses",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 13,
"confidence": 0.36,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"5a6322a24322": {
"pattern_id": "5a6322a24322",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when market lacks trending behavior - this textbook approach requires directional movement to work",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.15,
"sample_size": 155,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"16d238e8c392": {
"pattern_id": "16d238e8c392",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "High confidence (>0.8) should require confirmation from actual price momentum (>0.5% move), not just technical indicator alignment",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 20,
"confidence": 0.5,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"48192911d718": {
"pattern_id": "48192911d718",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Avoid opening new positions when all major assets show <0.1% absolute movement - wait for volatility expansion",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 13,
"confidence": 0.36,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": false
},
"62c4337d6156": {
"pattern_id": "62c4337d6156",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Trade count inversely correlates with performance in flat markets: 3-6 trades = ~$0 PnL, 70-180 trades = -$55 to -$141, 150-225 trades = -$325 to -$581",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 861,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e27d335aa54f": {
"pattern_id": "e27d335aa54f",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Positive funding rate interpreted as bullish momentum is a losing signal - elevated funding indicates crowded longs vulnerable to liquidation, not strength",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.15,
"sample_size": 225,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4aec9a1fc980": {
"pattern_id": "4aec9a1fc980",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Relative strength divergence (one asset up while others down) as entry signal shows poor results in low-volatility environment",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.2,
"sample_size": 72,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"617151567977": {
"pattern_id": "617151567977",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "SMA and MACD bearish signals for shorting fail when market is essentially flat (-0.02% BTC) - technical indicators need volatility to be meaningful",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.18,
"sample_size": 50,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"abd0ba7265c8": {
"pattern_id": "abd0ba7265c8",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Cutting losses early when 'market seems to be consolidating' is appropriate risk management - llama4_scout's early exit reasoning was sound even if overall strategy failed",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 15,
"confidence": 0.4,
"first_seen": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-13T17:50:18.244522",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"bbeb81b98c94": {
"pattern_id": "bbeb81b98c94",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "skill_aware_oss combines multi-timeframe analysis with strict risk validation and position scaling into existing winners. Uses 0.75-0.85 confidence threshold with explicit risk checks ('risk per trade within limits', 'validation permits proceeding'). Achieves highest PnL ($1349.11) with moderate trade frequency (157 trades).",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 157,
"confidence": 0.62,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7046b5fa926c": {
"pattern_id": "7046b5fa926c",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "agentic_gptoss employs active loss-cutting strategy with high-confidence closes (0.9) on losing positions ('Close the losing ETHUSDT long to free margin'). Combines with selective long entries. Achieves $372.23 PnL with 182 trades.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 182,
"confidence": 0.58,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"37261605809c": {
"pattern_id": "37261605809c",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Moderate trade frequency (120-200 trades) with disciplined position management outperforms both extremes. Winners trade 157-196 times vs losers at 248 trades or 2-4 trades.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss",
"gptoss_120b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 535,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c12f2416483b": {
"pattern_id": "c12f2416483b",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Active closing of near-breakeven or small-loss positions to free margin for higher-conviction opportunities. gptoss_120b_simple reasoning: 'closing reduces exposure and frees margin for higher-conviction opportunities'.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 317,
"confidence": 0.5199999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b2a74b991038": {
"pattern_id": "b2a74b991038",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "In trending bull markets (+1.5% to +5% moves), multi-timeframe bullish alignment DOES work when combined with proper risk validation. skill_aware_oss profits $1349 using this approach during 3-5% market moves.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 157,
"confidence": 0.58,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"68487b67d293": {
"pattern_id": "68487b67d293",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (248 trades in 24h) with repetitive single-asset focus (SOLUSDT) despite asset underperforming market (+1.55% vs ETH +4.96%). llama4_scout lost $69.19 repeatedly opening SOLUSDT longs.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.050000000000000044,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b3ab36d36571": {
"pattern_id": "b3ab36d36571",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High-confidence (0.8-0.9) entries based solely on 'strong uptrend' and 'high funding rate' without risk validation or position management leads to losses. llama4_scout used this reasoning 20+ times.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.06999999999999995,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.63,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a35233e50f31": {
"pattern_id": "a35233e50f31",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Ultra-low trade frequency (2-4 trades) misses trending market opportunities. qwen3_235b made only 4 trades during +3-5% market moves, losing $7.42. learning_qwen made 2 trades for $0 PnL.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b",
"learning_qwen"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 6,
"confidence": 0.58,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3e31b42a7832": {
"pattern_id": "3e31b42a7832",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Focusing on weakest-performing asset (SOLUSDT +1.55%) while ignoring strongest movers (ETHUSDT +4.96%, DOGEUSDT +4.77%) destroys alpha. llama4_scout exclusively traded SOL.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.6,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4e9dd5519cc8": {
"pattern_id": "4e9dd5519cc8",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "skill_only_oss without awareness component loses $69.20 with 26 trades, while skill_aware_oss gains $1349.11 with 157 trades. Awareness/validation layer is critical differentiator.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.13,
"sample_size": 26,
"confidence": 0.57,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d239dc6358e0": {
"pattern_id": "d239dc6358e0",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Technical analysis baseline (ta_baseline) using traditional indicators loses $25.99 with only 18 trades in trending market. Pure TA without adaptive reasoning underperforms.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"ta_baseline"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.18000000000000005,
"sample_size": 18,
"confidence": 0.5199999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"181329373082": {
"pattern_id": "181329373082",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH risk validation and position scaling works in genuine uptrends (+3-5%). Moderate trade frequency (150-200) captures moves without overtrading. Focus on strongest movers (ETH, DOGE) not laggards (SOL).",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.6,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c1ebc7a9515d": {
"pattern_id": "c1ebc7a9515d",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Active loss management - closing losing positions quickly to free margin for winners. agentic_gptoss and gptoss_120b_simple both used this successfully.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.5499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"0f52056e2d1f": {
"pattern_id": "0f52056e2d1f",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Asset selection matters: ETH (+4.96%) and DOGE (+4.77%) outperformed. Agents focusing on BTC (+3.14%) and SOL (+1.55%) captured less alpha.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.58,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a1514da28d82": {
"pattern_id": "a1514da28d82",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Zero-trade strategies (gpt_simple, index_fund) preserve capital but miss +3-5% opportunities. In confirmed uptrends, some participation is optimal.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.5,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f10fdc8a5104": {
"pattern_id": "f10fdc8a5104",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk per trade within limits' and 'portfolio risk is within limits' - this validation step correlates with +$1349 PnL.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 157,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"1a3b3734e4fa": {
"pattern_id": "1a3b3734e4fa",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin. agentic_gptoss: 'closing frees margin and stops further loss' - correlates with +$372 PnL.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 182,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a1085bb88b09": {
"pattern_id": "a1085bb88b09",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities, above 200 creates fee drag and overtrading losses.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 535,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e84beff433bf": {
"pattern_id": "e84beff433bf",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Diversify across assets rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout's SOL-only focus lost money despite bullish market.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7f93aac7c945": {
"pattern_id": "7f93aac7c945",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position (gptoss_20b_simple reasoning) requires active management to avoid concentration risk.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.65,
"sample_size": 121,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"0e2bd85d7e70": {
"pattern_id": "0e2bd85d7e70",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) combined with explicit risk validation produces profits in trending markets. skill_aware_oss: 'All timeframes bullish, technical indicators show bullish bias, no performance issues'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 157,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"aa22af21d3b5": {
"pattern_id": "aa22af21d3b5",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "High funding rate alone as bullish signal remains unreliable. llama4_scout repeatedly cited 'high funding rate indicating bullish momentum' but lost money.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b3925add25f2": {
"pattern_id": "b3925add25f2",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades. gptoss_120b_simple: 'position is near break-even...closing reduces exposure and frees margin'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 196,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"628d46a2b463": {
"pattern_id": "628d46a2b463",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "High-confidence (0.9) closes on losing positions to stop further loss. agentic_gptoss used this pattern successfully.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 182,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"353e6b3db59e": {
"pattern_id": "353e6b3db59e",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Scaling into existing winning positions ('scaling into existing long positions') during confirmed trends captures additional alpha.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 157,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T13:41:05.807711",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"991585f4e33d": {
"pattern_id": "991585f4e33d",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) combined with explicit risk validation (2% risk, 2:1 reward ratio) and position sizing controls produces strong profits in trending markets. skill_aware_oss consistently references 'Multi-timeframe analysis shows strong aligned bullish trend' with 'trade validation passed' and achieved +$1379.66 PnL.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"19b8b91370c9": {
"pattern_id": "19b8b91370c9",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Agentic workflow with validation checks before entry/exit decisions. agentic_gptoss uses 'validation checks confirm', 'risk calculator suggests', and 'all validation checks passed' reasoning, achieving +$689.63 with 184 trades. Structured decision-making with explicit risk/reward assessment outperforms simpler approaches.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.67,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"70b6d3d39db5": {
"pattern_id": "70b6d3d39db5",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Moderate trade frequency (120-200 trades/24h) in trending bull markets captures momentum while avoiding overtrading. gptoss_120b_simple (197 trades, +$138.86) and agentic_gptoss (184 trades, +$689.63) both fall in this range and are profitable.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss",
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 545,
"confidence": 0.65,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"041beecbda05": {
"pattern_id": "041beecbda05",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Proactive position closing to manage risk and free margin. Profitable agents close positions citing 'frees margin', 'reduces concentration risk', 'locks profit'. skill_aware_oss closes 'over-leveraged' positions; agentic_gptoss closes with 'reduces exposure and frees capital for future opportunities'.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss",
"gptoss_120b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 200,
"confidence": 0.63,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"928f977342e4": {
"pattern_id": "928f977342e4",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Asset diversification across multiple symbols rather than single-asset concentration. Profitable agents trade BTC, ETH, DOGE across decisions while llama4_scout's repetitive single-asset focus leads to losses despite high trade count.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 348,
"confidence": 0.6,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"348071070cdb": {
"pattern_id": "348071070cdb",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (248 trades in 24h) with high confidence (0.8-0.9) but shallow reasoning leads to losses. llama4_scout made 248 trades with -$18.95 PnL, using repetitive reasoning like 'showing strong upward trend' and 'high funding rate indicating potential for further growth' without validation checks.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.030000000000000027,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.72,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"8f8ae15ba45b": {
"pattern_id": "8f8ae15ba45b",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High funding rate interpreted as bullish momentum signal is unreliable. llama4_scout repeatedly cites 'high funding rate, indicating potential for further growth' but loses money. High funding actually indicates crowded long positioning and potential reversal risk.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.050000000000000044,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f28479fb360b": {
"pattern_id": "f28479fb360b",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Technical signals (SMA, MACD) without risk validation produce losses. skill_only_oss made 41 trades with -$77.63 PnL, likely using similar technical signals as skill_aware_oss but without the explicit risk validation layer that makes the difference.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 41,
"confidence": 0.65,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"2ec61fc73940": {
"pattern_id": "2ec61fc73940",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Traditional TA baseline approach without adaptive risk management loses in trending markets. ta_baseline made 21 trades with -$25.88 PnL while market was up 2.78-6.44% across all assets - failing to capture obvious uptrend.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"ta_baseline"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 21,
"confidence": 0.63,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c1d391f561a5": {
"pattern_id": "c1d391f561a5",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Zero-trade strategies miss significant opportunities in strong trending markets. index_fund and gpt_simple made 0 trades and $0 PnL while market gained 2.78-6.44%. In bull markets, inaction is a losing strategy relative to active participation.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"index_fund",
"gpt_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 504,
"confidence": 0.6,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3490c13b1c32": {
"pattern_id": "3490c13b1c32",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Very low trade frequency (<10 trades) with LLM-based agents suggests decision paralysis or overly conservative thresholds. learning_qwen (3 trades, $0) and qwen3_235b (4 trades, -$7.42) failed to capitalize on clear trending market.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"learning_qwen",
"qwen3_235b"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.18000000000000005,
"sample_size": 7,
"confidence": 0.57,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"cfe2d9d618bd": {
"pattern_id": "cfe2d9d618bd",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment, explicit risk validation (2% risk, 2:1 reward), and proactive position management. skill_aware_oss (+$1379.66) and agentic_gptoss (+$689.63) demonstrate this approach works when market is up 2.78-6.44% across all assets.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.93,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.68,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"5387d80de228": {
"pattern_id": "5387d80de228",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Asset selection matters in bull markets: ETH (+6.44%) outperformed BTC (+4.14%) and SOL (+2.94%). Agents focusing on strongest performers (ETH, DOGE at +5.52%) captured more upside.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.63,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"1a9f1b91f6f8": {
"pattern_id": "1a9f1b91f6f8",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position (gptoss_20b_simple reasoning) allows meaningful exposure while maintaining diversification. gptoss_20b_simple achieved +$27.88 with 124 trades using this approach.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.6,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a40c5d2ede56": {
"pattern_id": "a40c5d2ede56",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss opportunity cost. In this window with +2.78% to +6.44% gains, passive strategies underperformed active risk-managed approaches by significant margin.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.57,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"322d3611f26c": {
"pattern_id": "322d3611f26c",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk/reward is 2:1 with 2% equity risk' and 'trade validation passed', achieving best performance (+$1379.66).",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"06a62f3ce996": {
"pattern_id": "06a62f3ce996",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin and preserve capital. agentic_gptoss reasoning shows 'risk checks approved the close' leading to +$697.86",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8799999999999999,
"sample_size": 368,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"f8c8d69f506d": {
"pattern_id": "f8c8d69f506d",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending bull markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities (learning_qwen: 3 trades, $0), above 240 leads to overtrading losses (llama4_scout: 247 trades, -$18.95)",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8849724264705882,
"sample_size": 1088,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"92792b8a013e": {
"pattern_id": "92792b8a013e",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and closing near limit to free margin. gptoss_120b_simple and gptoss_20b_simple both reference closing positions 'near the 25% equity limit' to maintain flexibility.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 321,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"94a23c2fa52c": {
"pattern_id": "94a23c2fa52c",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SOL) rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout's apparent single-asset focus contributed to losses despite high activity.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 348,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"bebff22ea521": {
"pattern_id": "bebff22ea521",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades. gptoss_120b_simple: 'closing the losing position reduces risk and frees margin' - still lost $75 suggesting rule alone is insufficient.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.7271582733812951,
"sample_size": 278,
"confidence": 0.99,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"714f9ec4bcaa": {
"pattern_id": "714f9ec4bcaa",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) WITH explicit risk validation produces profitable entries. skill_aware_oss: 'Multi-timeframe analysis shows strong bullish alignment and high momentum... validation passes'. Success requires both trend confirmation AND risk checks.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"60b9a483be87": {
"pattern_id": "60b9a483be87",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "SMA crossover + bullish MACD + neutral Bollinger as entry confirmation. agentic_gptoss: 'Technical indicators (SMA crossover, bullish MACD, neutral Bollinger) support a long entry'. Combined with risk calculator validation.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"391c0cae07e8": {
"pattern_id": "391c0cae07e8",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "High funding rate alone as bullish signal is UNRELIABLE. llama4_scout repeatedly uses 'high funding rate, indicating potential for further growth' but loses money. Funding rate indicates crowding, not momentum.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 248,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9b7c93f8b121": {
"pattern_id": "9b7c93f8b121",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions when over-leveraged or highly concentrated. skill_aware_oss: 'Portfolio is over-leveraged and highly concentrated long; closing the large BTC long frees margin and reduces risk'. Risk-based exits preserve capital.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"cf3c4fabe06d": {
"pattern_id": "cf3c4fabe06d",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions near equity limits to maintain flexibility. gptoss_120b_simple: 'ETH long is near the 25% equity limit... closing locks profit and reduces funding drain'. Proactive limit management.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 197,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c2e273ec8359": {
"pattern_id": "c2e273ec8359",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "RSI overbought as exit signal with validation. agentic_gptoss: 'RSI overbought and recent trend shows slight pullback; validation passed, so exit position'. Technical exit with confirmation.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4018e6a96e2b": {
"pattern_id": "4018e6a96e2b",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Scaling into existing winning positions during confirmed uptrends. skill_aware_oss references 'scaled-up' positions when 'overall bias remains bullish' despite short-term overbought conditions.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:35:29.359156",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"df37e0baf8d6": {
"pattern_id": "df37e0baf8d6",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) combined with explicit risk validation (2% equity risk, 2:1 reward ratio) and trade validation checks produces strong positive returns in trending bull markets",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9550000000000001,
"sample_size": 328,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"5a48f55bea2b": {
"pattern_id": "5a48f55bea2b",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Moderate-high trade frequency (120-200 trades/24h) with active position management - closing small/underwater positions to free margin for higher-conviction trades",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss",
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.93,
"sample_size": 543,
"confidence": 0.73,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"340e892b03da": {
"pattern_id": "340e892b03da",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "SMA crossover + bullish MACD + neutral Bollinger bands as entry confirmation combined with trend alignment across timeframes",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"36d983792e00": {
"pattern_id": "36d983792e00",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Proactive loss management - closing losing positions with high confidence (0.9) to preserve capital and reduce concentration risk",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss",
"gptoss_120b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 379,
"confidence": 0.72,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"cabf91b7ec5f": {
"pattern_id": "cabf91b7ec5f",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position with active monitoring and timely closes to lock profits or limit losses",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_20b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 125,
"confidence": 0.6799999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b00567cbb4f7": {
"pattern_id": "b00567cbb4f7",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (247 trades in 24h) with high confidence (0.8-0.9) based primarily on funding rate and simple momentum signals leads to losses despite bullish market (+2.5% to +6.2% across assets)",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.030000000000000027,
"sample_size": 494,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"c00a9e248037": {
"pattern_id": "c00a9e248037",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High funding rate interpreted as bullish momentum signal is unreliable - llama4_scout repeatedly used this reasoning ('high funding rate indicating bullish sentiment') but lost $18.95 in a +4.68% DOGE market",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.04000000000000004,
"sample_size": 494,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"cc0b26bd86eb": {
"pattern_id": "cc0b26bd86eb",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Technical analysis baseline (ta_baseline) with low trade frequency (21 trades) underperforms in trending markets - missed opportunity cost",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"ta_baseline"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 21,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"aff01c89635e": {
"pattern_id": "aff01c89635e",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Zero-trade strategies (gpt_simple, index_fund) preserve capital but miss significant gains in strong bull markets (+3-6% moves)",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gpt_simple",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 502,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7beb55b6ae27": {
"pattern_id": "7beb55b6ae27",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "skill_only_oss with 42 trades lost $77.63 - insufficient trade frequency to capture trends but enough to accumulate fees and small losses",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 42,
"confidence": 0.6799999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"22e1d50860db": {
"pattern_id": "22e1d50860db",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Active trading with 120-200 trades/24h, multi-timeframe bullish alignment WITH explicit risk validation (2% equity, 2:1 R:R), proactive position management closing losers quickly. skill_aware_oss achieved +$1236.81 with this approach in +2.5% to +6.2% market",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.7399999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"bd7ad8c5a7b0": {
"pattern_id": "bd7ad8c5a7b0",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and SOL (+2.88%) - agents focusing on highest momentum assets captured more gains",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.6799999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"310f2a7f8ca7": {
"pattern_id": "310f2a7f8ca7",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Optimal trade frequency 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities (ta_baseline -$25.88), above 240 leads to overtrading losses (llama4_scout -$18.95)",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.72,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"51093b7841d7": {
"pattern_id": "51093b7841d7",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity. Active validated trading (skill_aware_oss +$1236.81) dramatically outperforms passive approaches",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d0615ea19f7f": {
"pattern_id": "d0615ea19f7f",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio - skill_aware_oss reasoning consistently includes this validation and achieved +$1236.81",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.9199999999999999,
"sample_size": 328,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"8f2a514a5598": {
"pattern_id": "8f2a514a5598",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.9) to free margin and preserve capital - agentic_gptoss reasoning shows this approach works",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f21d74d865f8": {
"pattern_id": "f21d74d865f8",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending bull markets: 120-200 trades/24h. Below 50 misses opportunities, above 240 leads to overtrading losses",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 543,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"45b791956faf": {
"pattern_id": "45b791956faf",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and timely closes - gptoss_20b_simple achieved +$27.88 with this approach",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 125,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ef5cdba21fe9": {
"pattern_id": "ef5cdba21fe9",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SOL, BNB) rather than concentrating on single symbol. llama4_scout focused heavily on DOGE and lost despite DOGE being +4.68%",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 494,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"b78c6cb22801": {
"pattern_id": "b78c6cb22801",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades - gptoss_120b_simple reasoning shows 'frees margin for future opportunities' contributing to +$100.86",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8199999999999998,
"sample_size": 390,
"confidence": 0.7899999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"87a1247f05d4": {
"pattern_id": "87a1247f05d4",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) WITH explicit risk validation and trade validation passed - produces strong returns in trending markets",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e94fa78e5942": {
"pattern_id": "e94fa78e5942",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "SMA crossover + bullish MACD + neutral Bollinger bands as entry confirmation with trend alignment - agentic_gptoss used this for +$697.86",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"375675fb87eb": {
"pattern_id": "375675fb87eb",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "High funding rate alone as bullish signal is UNRELIABLE - llama4_scout repeatedly used this and lost money in a bull market",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 247,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9f2cccc0f8f7": {
"pattern_id": "9f2cccc0f8f7",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "RSI overbought combined with slight pullback triggers exit - agentic_gptoss used this to lock profits",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 50,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3dfdde4e3115": {
"pattern_id": "3dfdde4e3115",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close underwater positions to free margin when position is slightly negative and ties up capital - gptoss_120b_simple reasoning",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 195,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ca9c88320cf7": {
"pattern_id": "ca9c88320cf7",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions at 25% equity limit to free margin for future opportunities - gptoss_20b_simple approach",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 125,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:48:38.204919",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"5b8b16aa6541": {
"pattern_id": "5b8b16aa6541",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Active position management with proactive closing of losing/breakeven positions to free margin, combined with moderate-high trade frequency (164-195 trades/24h) in trending markets",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.94,
"sample_size": 543,
"confidence": 0.7399999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"309cbc82f869": {
"pattern_id": "309cbc82f869",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "SMA crossover + bullish MACD + neutral Bollinger bands as entry confirmation with explicit validation checks before execution",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.72,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"87cb70877082": {
"pattern_id": "87cb70877082",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Closing positions near breakeven or with small losses to free margin for higher-conviction trades preserves capital and enables redeployment",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"gptoss_20b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 320,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ec38e70d4d3b": {
"pattern_id": "ec38e70d4d3b",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Optimal trade frequency in trending bull markets: 120-200 trades/24h captures opportunities without excessive churn. skill_aware_oss (164 trades, +$1236.81) and agentic_gptoss (184 trades, +$697.86) demonstrate this",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss",
"gptoss_120b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 543,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7615950d4ec8": {
"pattern_id": "7615950d4ec8",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Zero-trade strategies (0 trades) miss significant opportunity cost in trending bull markets - gpt_simple and index_fund had $0 PnL while market gained +2.5% to +6.2%",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gpt_simple",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.07999999999999996,
"sample_size": 502,
"confidence": 0.72,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"2cc2e68e1f3c": {
"pattern_id": "2cc2e68e1f3c",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Very low trade frequency (3-4 trades) with poor timing results in losses even in bull markets - qwen3_235b made 4 trades for -$7.42 loss",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b",
"learning_qwen"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 7,
"confidence": 0.6799999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6727bc49d30f": {
"pattern_id": "6727bc49d30f",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Technical analysis baseline (ta_baseline) with 21 trades lost $25.88 - suggests pure TA without risk validation underperforms in trending markets",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"ta_baseline"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 21,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"56c9cfafad90": {
"pattern_id": "56c9cfafad90",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "skill_only_oss with 42 trades lost $77.63 - moderate trade frequency without proper risk validation or multi-timeframe alignment produces worst losses",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 42,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"51a9a84a0da6": {
"pattern_id": "51a9a84a0da6",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Asset selection matters: ETH (+6.16%) significantly outperformed BTC (+3.99%) and BNB (+2.54%). Agents focusing on higher-beta assets (ETH, DOGE) captured more upside",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.7,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"63c01ddf9806": {
"pattern_id": "63c01ddf9806",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Zero-trade strategies preserve capital but miss +3-6% opportunity cost. In confirmed bull markets, active participation with risk controls outperforms passive approaches",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.6799999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"84bbaecb80ba": {
"pattern_id": "84bbaecb80ba",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "trending_up: Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position with active monitoring and willingness to close at breakeven to redeploy capital (gptoss_20b_simple: +$27.88 with 125 trades)",
"conditions": {
"regime": "trending_up"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.6499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"aa7f2d6bca0b": {
"pattern_id": "aa7f2d6bca0b",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity limit per position requires active monitoring and willingness to close. skill_only_oss: '25% equity per trade' with active position management.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.7350877192982456,
"sample_size": 285,
"confidence": 0.99,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 2,
"is_active": true
},
"2851e46d6e74": {
"pattern_id": "2851e46d6e74",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) WITH explicit risk validation and trade validation checks - skill_aware_oss uses this consistently with strong results (+$1236.81)",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 164,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b26b0a203852": {
"pattern_id": "b26b0a203852",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "SMA crossover + bullish MACD + neutral Bollinger bands as entry confirmation with validation checks - agentic_gptoss reasoning shows this pattern with +$697.86",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3973a0e3580c": {
"pattern_id": "3973a0e3580c",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "High funding rate alone as bullish signal is UNRELIABLE - llama4_scout repeatedly used 'high funding rate indicating bullish sentiment' but lost -$18.95 despite correct market direction",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 247,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"1bcd7a9bc187": {
"pattern_id": "1bcd7a9bc187",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions when RSI overbought and recent trend shows slight pullback - agentic_gptoss reasoning 'RSI overbought...exit position' with validation passed",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 184,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"263b86d7482d": {
"pattern_id": "263b86d7482d",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions at 25% equity limit to free margin for repositioning - gptoss_20b_simple reasoning shows this approach",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 125,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e2ae439efe71": {
"pattern_id": "e2ae439efe71",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close slightly underwater positions to lock small loss and free capacity for higher-conviction trades - gptoss_120b_simple reasoning demonstrates this",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 195,
"confidence": 0.7499999999999999,
"first_seen": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-14T16:49:32.278554",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"efeb6550cef9": {
"pattern_id": "efeb6550cef9",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Agentic approach with active position management: opening shorts in bearish markets, closing positions to lock gains when technical indicators confirm trend reversal. Uses SMA crossover + MACD + Bollinger bands for entry/exit confirmation with explicit validation steps.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 100,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ad89a6fea835": {
"pattern_id": "ad89a6fea835",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Zero-trade or minimal-trade strategies preserve capital in bearish/declining markets. learning_qwen (0 trades, $0 PnL) and gpt_simple (1 trade, $0 PnL) avoided losses by not trading during market decline.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"learning_qwen",
"gpt_simple",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 136,
"confidence": 0.82,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"0e9f3fbf8b1e": {
"pattern_id": "0e9f3fbf8b1e",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Moderate trade frequency (80-90 trades) with explicit risk validation outperforms high-frequency trading. skill_only_oss (88 trades, -$9.15) significantly outperformed skill_aware_oss (103 trades, -$180.47) despite similar strategies.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 88,
"confidence": 0.78,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e959bc78e7bf": {
"pattern_id": "e959bc78e7bf",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High trade frequency (100+ trades/day) in bearish markets leads to significant losses. skill_aware_oss with 103 trades lost $180.47 despite using multi-timeframe analysis and risk validation.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.07999999999999996,
"sample_size": 103,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"962d054535df": {
"pattern_id": "962d054535df",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Opening longs based on 'positive momentum' or small price increases (+0.33% to +0.44%) during overall bearish market conditions. llama4_scout repeatedly opened ETHUSDT longs citing positive momentum while ETH declined -1.29%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 76,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6bdec8e89c3c": {
"pattern_id": "6bdec8e89c3c",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment signals (15m, 1h, 4h) produce losses in bearish markets. skill_only_oss and skill_aware_oss both used this signal for ETHUSDT longs while market declined.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss",
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 191,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6d2bc2395f28": {
"pattern_id": "6d2bc2395f28",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Shorting based on negative funding rate alone is unreliable. gptoss_20b_simple shorted DOGEUSDT citing 'negative funding' but still lost $44.40 overall despite DOGE being down -3%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_20b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.25,
"sample_size": 84,
"confidence": 0.75,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"926d4cabc420": {
"pattern_id": "926d4cabc420",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High confidence (0.85-0.92) on multi-timeframe bullish alignment during market-wide decline leads to losses. Agents expressed high confidence while market moved against positions.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss",
"skill_aware_oss",
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 267,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"66ff7e237976": {
"pattern_id": "66ff7e237976",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bearish: Reduce trade frequency dramatically or avoid trading entirely. Zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed active trading strategies (avg -$66 PnL). Only agentic_gptoss profited by actively managing shorts and closing positions to lock gains.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bearish"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c6e2892d5d4f": {
"pattern_id": "c6e2892d5d4f",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bearish: Short positions with active profit-taking outperform long positions. agentic_gptoss (+$34.30) succeeded by opening shorts and closing when 'position is already in profit' rather than holding.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bearish"
},
"success_rate": 0.82,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.82,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"e765df2d7c4e": {
"pattern_id": "e765df2d7c4e",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bearish: Asset selection matters: DOGE (-3%) showed highest volatility/decline, making it best short target. BNB (-0.61%) showed relative strength, making it worst short target.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bearish"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.8,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"529173208bf0": {
"pattern_id": "529173208bf0",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bearish: Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0-10 trades = $0 to -$30 loss; 76-103 trades = -$44 to -$180 loss. Optimal is <20 trades or pure capital preservation.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bearish"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"fa0e130c5ed2": {
"pattern_id": "fa0e130c5ed2",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.85-0.9) to free margin and limit drawdown. agentic_gptoss reasoning: 'lock in gains and avoids further downside risk' led to only profitable active trader.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 100,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"de4ca790fc89": {
"pattern_id": "de4ca790fc89",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails in bearish markets lacking clear trend direction. skill_only_oss and skill_aware_oss both used this rule but still lost money.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 191,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"0ea6132b1592": {
"pattern_id": "0ea6132b1592",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: bearish markets require <20 trades/day. Agents with 76-103 trades lost $44-$180 while agents with 0-11 trades lost $0-$40.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.78,
"sample_size": 507,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"19b5d1f02ccc": {
"pattern_id": "19b5d1f02ccc",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Explicit validation step before trade execution improves outcomes. agentic_gptoss uses 'validation allows closing' and 'validation allows proceeding' language and was only profitable active trader.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 100,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9ab965269a03": {
"pattern_id": "9ab965269a03",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as long entry signal FAILS in bearish markets. skill_only_oss used this for ETHUSDT longs while ETH declined -1.29%.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.25,
"sample_size": 88,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"7bc35a56c778": {
"pattern_id": "7bc35a56c778",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Positive momentum on small timeframe (+0.33% to +0.44%) as long entry signal is UNRELIABLE. llama4_scout repeatedly cited 'positive momentum' for ETHUSDT longs, lost $151.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.2,
"sample_size": 76,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"fcd0a9807e61": {
"pattern_id": "fcd0a9807e61",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close short positions when 'price below short-term SMAs' and 'position is already in profit' - agentic_gptoss used this to lock gains successfully.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 100,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"0f47352be2bb": {
"pattern_id": "0f47352be2bb",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close underwater longs when 'bearish bias' confirmed by validation. agentic_gptoss: 'ETH shows bearish bias and validation allows closing; lock in gains' - successful exit strategy.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 100,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"cc116c3b4307": {
"pattern_id": "cc116c3b4307",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment for short entry. skill_aware_oss: 'multi-timeframe analysis shows strong bearish alignment' for SOLUSDT short - directionally correct as SOL fell -1.15%.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.65,
"sample_size": 103,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-16T15:51:30.859375",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d9f3f6e0f86d": {
"pattern_id": "d9f3f6e0f86d",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Zero-trade strategies preserve capital in mixed/choppy markets. learning_qwen, gpt_simple, and index_fund made 0 trades and achieved $0.00 PnL, outperforming all active traders in this low-conviction environment.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"learning_qwen",
"gpt_simple",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 771,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"633170e1f0c9": {
"pattern_id": "633170e1f0c9",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Minimal trading with high selectivity outperforms frequent trading. qwen3_235b made only 2 trades with PnL of -$0.29, dramatically outperforming agents with 140-201 trades.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"qwen3_235b"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 257,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"2dff1f5265b9": {
"pattern_id": "2dff1f5265b9",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Explicit risk validation with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio combined with position closing discipline. skill_only_oss achieved best active trader performance (-$17.96) with 160 trades, using validated risk parameters.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 160,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6f3351f49dd1": {
"pattern_id": "6f3351f49dd1",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.8-0.9) to free margin and limit drawdowns. Multiple agents demonstrated this: gptoss_20b_simple closing SOL at -$4.76 loss, agentic_gptoss closing DOGE 'largest loss percentage'.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_20b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss",
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 368,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ce76cb2b0344": {
"pattern_id": "ce76cb2b0344",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (200+ trades in 24h) in mixed/choppy markets leads to largest losses. skill_aware_oss made 201 trades with -$360.24 PnL, the worst performer.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.050000000000000044,
"sample_size": 201,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a54b6891f4e4": {
"pattern_id": "a54b6891f4e4",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Contrarian 'bounce back' reasoning on downtrending assets fails. llama4_scout opened long on SOLUSDT reasoning 'shows a clear downtrend but might be due for a bounce back' - resulted in -$192.40 total PnL.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.07999999999999996,
"sample_size": 180,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"cfc830995533": {
"pattern_id": "cfc830995533",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment for shorts fails when market is mixed (BNB +0.93%, SOL +1.65% vs DOGE -1.19%). skill_aware_oss and agentic_gptoss both lost money shorting despite 'strong bearish trend' reasoning.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 377,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4d7705de6ffc": {
"pattern_id": "4d7705de6ffc",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High confidence (0.85-0.9) short positions based on multi-timeframe bearish alignment underperform in mixed markets. agentic_gptoss shorted BNB at 0.85 confidence while BNB was +0.93%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"agentic_gptoss",
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.13,
"sample_size": 176,
"confidence": 0.87,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"089e17c57d09": {
"pattern_id": "089e17c57d09",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Anticipating breakouts on 'relatively stable' assets with small movements is unreliable. llama4_scout opened long on ETHUSDT expecting 'potential breakout' on -0.03% movement.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 180,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c0da9541a2f7": {
"pattern_id": "c0da9541a2f7",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Negative funding rate interpreted as long opportunity signal is unreliable. llama4_scout: 'funding rate is slightly negative which could indicate a potential long opportunity' - total PnL -$192.40.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 180,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3d2f80a5fcae": {
"pattern_id": "3d2f80a5fcae",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "mixed_choppy: Reduce or eliminate trading. In mixed markets (BNB +0.93%, SOL +1.65%, BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%, DOGE -1.19%), zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed all active traders (all negative PnL). Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0 trades = $0, 2 trades = -$0.29, 160 trades = -$17.96, 201 trades = -$360.24.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "mixed_choppy"
},
"success_rate": 0.93,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.93,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"821b09058738": {
"pattern_id": "821b09058738",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "mixed_choppy: If trading, prefer assets showing clear directional movement (SOL +1.65%, BNB +0.93%) over flat assets (BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%). Avoid shorting in mixed regimes even with bearish technical signals.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "mixed_choppy"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9f7b54bbe224": {
"pattern_id": "9f7b54bbe224",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "mixed_choppy: Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, SMA crossovers) generate false signals in mixed markets. Both bullish and bearish aligned trades lost money.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "mixed_choppy"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"24871f723ccc": {
"pattern_id": "24871f723ccc",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: mixed/choppy markets require 0-10 trades/24h maximum. 201 trades = -$360.24, 2 trades = -$0.29, 0 trades = $0.00.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 950,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"25375c49ec68": {
"pattern_id": "25375c49ec68",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close positions near breakeven to free margin for higher-conviction trades. gptoss_20b_simple: 'ETH is down 0.55% with a small loss; closing the long position prevents further loss and frees margin'.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 144,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d500cd4baa4c": {
"pattern_id": "d500cd4baa4c",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_only_oss consistently applied this and achieved best active trader performance.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 160,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"283204aaa3cb": {
"pattern_id": "283204aaa3cb",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.8-0.9) to free margin and limit drawdowns. Multiple agents demonstrated this pattern.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 368,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"550cdce39bab": {
"pattern_id": "550cdce39bab",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Explicit validation step ('Validate_trade cleared the trade') before execution improves outcomes. agentic_gptoss used this but still lost -$26.29, suggesting validation criteria need refinement for mixed markets.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.65,
"sample_size": 176,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3d42415ca106": {
"pattern_id": "3d42415ca106",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as long entry signal FAILS in mixed/choppy markets. skill_only_oss repeatedly entered longs on ETH with 0.85-0.9 confidence citing bullish alignment, but ETH was -0.03%.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.3,
"sample_size": 160,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f7ab65b9c505": {
"pattern_id": "f7ab65b9c505",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment for short entry FAILS in mixed markets. agentic_gptoss: 'All timeframes align on a bearish trend' for DOGE short, skill_aware_oss: 'bearish bias' for SOL short - both lost money.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 201,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"60c46481c7dc": {
"pattern_id": "60c46481c7dc",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Negative funding rate as long opportunity signal is UNRELIABLE. llama4_scout: 'funding rate is slightly negative which could indicate a potential long opportunity' - resulted in losses.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.25,
"sample_size": 180,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"5a37d7b71509": {
"pattern_id": "5a37d7b71509",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Contrarian 'bounce back' reasoning on downtrending assets is a LOSING signal. llama4_scout: 'shows a clear downtrend but might be due for a bounce back'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.2,
"sample_size": 180,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"21ffea60b9ee": {
"pattern_id": "21ffea60b9ee",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions when 'no trend alignment and neutral indicators suggest exiting'. agentic_gptoss used this at 0.9 confidence - appropriate for mixed markets.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 176,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d1900b7edeb4": {
"pattern_id": "d1900b7edeb4",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions with largest loss percentage first to reduce overall portfolio loss. agentic_gptoss: 'DOGE short has the largest loss percentage... closing it reduces overall loss'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 176,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"a66f4194e3e8": {
"pattern_id": "a66f4194e3e8",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close positions to reduce overexposure to high-beta alts. skill_aware_oss: 'reduces overexposure to high-beta alts and aligns with neutral market sentiment'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 201,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T05:09:21.349901",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c2e2fbbdf11a": {
"pattern_id": "c2e2fbbdf11a",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Zero-trade strategy preserves capital in moderately bullish markets where active trading leads to losses. Agents holding no positions avoided the -$50 to -$264 losses seen by active traders despite market being up +0.63% to +2.15%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"learning_qwen",
"gpt_simple",
"qwen3_235b",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 4,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"27ccaa364510": {
"pattern_id": "27ccaa364510",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Low-frequency trading (89 trades) with selective long entries on multi-timeframe bullish alignment produces small positive returns (+$6.22) in moderately bullish markets.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 89,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"f29a26c934f4": {
"pattern_id": "f29a26c934f4",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Closing long positions with high confidence (0.92) when regime shifts to 'moderate bearish' preserves capital. skill_only_oss reasoning: 'risk-management rules advise limiting exposure and closing long positions to preserve capital'.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 89,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"920e99e68c8f": {
"pattern_id": "920e99e68c8f",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (231 trades in 24h) in moderately bullish market leads to largest losses (-$264.52). llama4_scout traded most frequently and lost most.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.050000000000000044,
"sample_size": 231,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b3015c19ad28": {
"pattern_id": "b3015c19ad28",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Shorting in a bullish market (all assets +0.63% to +2.15%) with high frequency leads to significant losses. Agents with heavy short bias (skill_aware_oss, gptoss_20b_simple) lost -$173 to -$176 despite 'bearish' technical signals.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"gptoss_20b_simple",
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.06999999999999995,
"sample_size": 675,
"confidence": 0.93,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"538c49bb8d53": {
"pattern_id": "538c49bb8d53",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment signals for short entry FAIL in bullish markets. skill_aware_oss opened shorts on 'bearish bias (RSI overbought, MACD bearish)' but market moved up, causing -$173.25 loss.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 355,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4b4d988cd843": {
"pattern_id": "4b4d988cd843",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High-confidence short entries (0.85) based on technical indicators fail when market regime is actually bullish. Agents misread regime as bearish when BTC was +0.63%, ETH +1.15%, SOL +1.60%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 355,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"54685e8a16bf": {
"pattern_id": "54685e8a16bf",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Churning behavior - repeatedly opening and closing same positions (BTCUSDT, SOLUSDT shorts) destroys capital through fees and slippage. skill_aware_oss showed this pattern explicitly.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.13,
"sample_size": 173,
"confidence": 0.87,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"96619900d56d": {
"pattern_id": "96619900d56d",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Position sizing at 25% equity with 5x leverage on directionally wrong trades amplifies losses. gptoss_20b_simple lost -$175.85 with 131 trades.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_20b_simple"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.15000000000000002,
"sample_size": 131,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3df112a75fba": {
"pattern_id": "3df112a75fba",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Zero trading or very low frequency (<30 trades/24h) with long-only bias. Market up +0.63% to +2.15% across all assets - passive strategies outperformed all active traders. Only skill_only_oss with 89 trades and selective longs achieved positive PnL.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9432a4f77ff5": {
"pattern_id": "9432a4f77ff5",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Avoid shorting entirely. All short-biased strategies lost money despite 'bearish' technical signals. Technical indicators gave false bearish readings in a bullish regime.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3ed5d51204d4": {
"pattern_id": "3ed5d51204d4",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Asset selection: BNB (+2.15%) significantly outperformed BTC (+0.63%). Long positions in higher-beta assets would have captured more upside.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"86ce05212674": {
"pattern_id": "86ce05212674",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-30 trades/24h maximum. Above 100 trades correlates with losses (-$50 to -$264).",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 895,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"30310e25755c": {
"pattern_id": "30310e25755c",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close short positions immediately when market shows consistent positive returns across all assets. Holding shorts in +1-2% market destroys capital.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 675,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"186df825d306": {
"pattern_id": "186df825d306",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Explicit validation step before trade execution does NOT prevent losses if regime assessment is wrong. agentic_gptoss used validation but still lost -$50.58.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.45,
"sample_size": 182,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"ab5db737cffa": {
"pattern_id": "ab5db737cffa",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Close losing positions proactively with high confidence (0.8-0.9) to free margin - CONFIRMED but insufficient alone. gptoss_120b_simple closed losing BNB shorts but still ended -$75.96.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.6,
"sample_size": 189,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"151d3979c854": {
"pattern_id": "151d3979c854",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when directionally wrong. skill_aware_oss used this framework but lost -$173.25 on wrong-direction shorts.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 173,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"39c0c7e83ecb": {
"pattern_id": "39c0c7e83ecb",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bullish alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) as long entry signal WORKS in moderate bull markets. skill_only_oss: 'Current regime likely trending up; active multi-timeframe bullish alignment with 2% equity risk' - only profitable active trader.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.75,
"sample_size": 89,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"253b6514bfcf": {
"pattern_id": "253b6514bfcf",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment for short entry FAILS in moderate bull markets. skill_aware_oss: 'Technical indicators show bearish bias (RSI overbought, MACD bearish)' led to -$173 loss.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.25,
"sample_size": 173,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"aec5acd02d59": {
"pattern_id": "aec5acd02d59",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close long positions when 'regime shifts to moderate bearish' - WORKS for capital preservation. skill_only_oss: 'risk-management rules advise limiting exposure and closing long positions'.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.8,
"sample_size": 89,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"37d971d58edb": {
"pattern_id": "37d971d58edb",
"pattern_type": "exit_signal",
"description": "Close short positions when 'BNB short is the only losing position' to limit further loss - PARTIALLY WORKS but too late if regime is bullish.",
"conditions": {
"type": "exit"
},
"success_rate": 0.55,
"sample_size": 189,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"d32d6adeba37": {
"pattern_id": "d32d6adeba37",
"pattern_type": "entry_signal",
"description": "RSI overbought + MACD bearish as short entry signal is UNRELIABLE in moderate bull markets. These signals triggered shorts that lost money as market continued higher.",
"conditions": {
"type": "entry"
},
"success_rate": 0.3,
"sample_size": 355,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T16:36:23.103760",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9fd4ee3a05ba": {
"pattern_id": "9fd4ee3a05ba",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Zero-trade strategy in moderate bull markets preserves capital perfectly. Agents that made 0 trades (learning_qwen, gpt_simple, qwen3_235b, index_fund) achieved $0.00 PnL while all active traders lost money despite BNB +2.03%, ETH +1.02%, DOGE +1.07% gains.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"learning_qwen",
"gpt_simple",
"qwen3_235b",
"index_fund"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.95,
"sample_size": 4,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"42011239de14": {
"pattern_id": "42011239de14",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Minimal trading frequency (23 trades) with technical analysis baseline outperforms high-frequency approaches. ta_baseline lost only $-28.69 vs llama4_scout's $-229.00 with 243 trades.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"ta_baseline"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 1,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"6b8254a644a8": {
"pattern_id": "6b8254a644a8",
"pattern_type": "winning_strategy",
"description": "Proactive closing of losing positions with high confidence (0.85-0.95) to free margin. skill_only_oss closed DOGEUSDT at 0.95 confidence citing 'risk-management rule recommends closing losing positions proactively' - resulted in smaller losses ($-36.63) than more active traders.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_only_oss",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 5,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"b090c5d9c6a5": {
"pattern_id": "b090c5d9c6a5",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Extreme overtrading (243 trades in 24h) in moderate bull market leads to largest losses. llama4_scout made 243 trades with $-229.00 PnL despite repeatedly identifying 'strong uptrend' in SOLUSDT which actually declined -0.09%.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.050000000000000044,
"sample_size": 243,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"beea435826c2": {
"pattern_id": "beea435826c2",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Repeated high-confidence long entries on SOLUSDT based on 'strong uptrend' reasoning while asset actually declined -0.09%. llama4_scout opened multiple longs at 0.80-0.90 confidence citing +2.24% to +2.59% price increases that were temporary.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"llama4_scout"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.07999999999999996,
"sample_size": 7,
"confidence": 0.92,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"3eba96cb9f91": {
"pattern_id": "3eba96cb9f91",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Shorting in moderate bull markets leads to consistent losses. skill_aware_oss opened shorts on BTCUSDT at 0.88 confidence citing 'strong bearish alignment' while BTC was +0.24% - contributed to $-167.78 total loss.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 171,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"9988deeed7c0": {
"pattern_id": "9988deeed7c0",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "High trade frequency (129-195 trades) with GPT-based models all resulted in significant losses ($-55 to $-128) despite validation steps and risk management frameworks.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"gptoss_120b_simple",
"gptoss_20b_simple",
"agentic_gptoss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.12,
"sample_size": 517,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"47f569d6ca69": {
"pattern_id": "47f569d6ca69",
"pattern_type": "losing_pattern",
"description": "Multi-timeframe bearish alignment signals for short entry fail in moderate bull markets. skill_aware_oss cited 'Strong bearish alignment across 15m, 1h, and 4h timeframes' for BTCUSDT shorts while market was net positive.",
"conditions": {
"agents": [
"skill_aware_oss"
]
},
"success_rate": 0.09999999999999998,
"sample_size": 2,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"881589d0571d": {
"pattern_id": "881589d0571d",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Zero trading or extremely low frequency (<25 trades/24h). Market showed BNB +2.03%, ETH +1.02%, DOGE +1.07%, BTC +0.24% but all active traders lost money. Only non-traders preserved capital. If trading, long-only on strongest performers (BNB).",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.93,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.93,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"289fba29d27f": {
"pattern_id": "289fba29d27f",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Avoid shorting entirely. skill_aware_oss lost $-167.78 with 171 trades including BTCUSDT shorts despite 'bearish alignment' signals. Market direction trumps technical signals.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.9,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.9,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"18c1ea64eb08": {
"pattern_id": "18c1ea64eb08",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Asset selection critical: BNB (+2.03%) significantly outperformed SOL (-0.09%). Agents focusing on SOL longs (llama4_scout) lost heavily despite 'uptrend' reasoning.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.88,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.88,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"4823a485e95b": {
"pattern_id": "4823a485e95b",
"pattern_type": "regime_strategy",
"description": "moderate_bull: Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, RSI) are unreliable for direction. Both bullish and bearish technical signals led to losses.",
"conditions": {
"regime": "moderate_bull"
},
"success_rate": 0.85,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence": 0.85,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"c61e4c3ceede": {
"pattern_id": "c61e4c3ceede",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-25 trades/24h maximum. ta_baseline (23 trades, -$28.69) vs llama4_scout (243 trades, -$229.00).",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.92,
"sample_size": 855,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"8a1f893153e7": {
"pattern_id": "8a1f893153e7",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fails when directionally wrong. skill_aware_oss used this framework but lost $-167.78 by shorting in bull market.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.3,
"sample_size": 171,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
},
"fceed55ea5bb": {
"pattern_id": "fceed55ea5bb",
"pattern_type": "risk_rule",
"description": "Explicit validation step ('Validate_trade approved', 'validation passed') does NOT prevent losses if regime assessment is wrong. agentic_gptoss used validation but lost $-55.63.",
"conditions": {},
"success_rate": 0.35,
"sample_size": 195,
"confidence": 0.95,
"first_seen": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"last_confirmed": "2026-01-17T20:31:30.955081",
"times_seen": 1,
"is_active": true
}
}
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