"""Guyton-Klinger 4-rule guardrails (FPA Journal, 2006). Decision rules applied each year, in order: 1. **Portfolio-Management Rule** — choose which asset class to draw from (we delegate to the simulator's rebalance logic; ignored here). 2. **Inflation Rule** — skip the inflation uplift on the prior year's withdrawal if both: a. the prior year's nominal portfolio return was negative, AND b. the current withdrawal rate would exceed the initial rate. 3. **Capital-Preservation Rule** — cut the withdrawal by 10% if the current rate exceeds 120% of the initial rate AND there are more than 15 years left in the horizon. 4. **Prosperity Rule** — increase the withdrawal by 10% if the current rate is below 80% of the initial rate. This implementation operates in real GBP, so the inflation-skip rule has no effect (real values don't drift with inflation). The other three rules apply normally. Trade-off: simplifies the math at the cost of slightly under-cutting in nominal-stress scenarios. Initial rate baseline: 5.5% of starting portfolio (per Guyton-Klinger paper, allows higher sustainable spend than Trinity by tolerating guardrail cuts). """ from __future__ import annotations from fire_planner.strategies.base import StrategyState, WithdrawalStrategy DEFAULT_INITIAL_RATE = 0.055 CAPITAL_PRESERVATION_RATIO = 1.20 PROSPERITY_RATIO = 0.80 ADJUSTMENT = 0.10 MIN_HORIZON_FOR_CUT = 15 class GuytonKlingerStrategy(WithdrawalStrategy): name = "guyton_klinger" def __init__(self, initial_rate: float = DEFAULT_INITIAL_RATE) -> None: self.initial_rate = initial_rate def propose_withdrawal(self, state: StrategyState) -> float: # Year 0 = the user's target spending; the implied initial rate # (initial_withdrawal / initial_portfolio) becomes the anchor # the guardrails compare against. Falls back to the preset rate # × initial_portfolio when no target was given. target_initial = (state.initial_withdrawal if state.initial_withdrawal > 0 else state.initial_portfolio * self.initial_rate) if state.year_idx == 0: return target_initial if state.portfolio <= 0: return 0.0 implied_initial_rate = (target_initial / state.initial_portfolio if state.initial_portfolio > 0 else self.initial_rate) last_w = state.last_withdrawal current_rate = last_w / state.portfolio years_left = state.horizon_years - state.year_idx # Capital-preservation cut: only if more than 15 years remain. if (current_rate > implied_initial_rate * CAPITAL_PRESERVATION_RATIO and years_left > MIN_HORIZON_FOR_CUT): return last_w * (1 - ADJUSTMENT) if current_rate < implied_initial_rate * PROSPERITY_RATIO: return last_w * (1 + ADJUSTMENT) return last_w