"""End-to-end: cashflow_adjustments make portfolios bigger or smaller.""" from __future__ import annotations import numpy as np import pytest from fire_planner.glide_path import static from fire_planner.life_events import EventInput, events_to_cashflow_array from fire_planner.simulator import simulate from fire_planner.strategies.trinity import TrinityStrategy from fire_planner.tax.malaysia import MalaysiaTaxRegime from tests.test_simulator import fixed_paths def _baseline_kwargs() -> dict[str, object]: """0% real returns, 25y, Trinity 4%, no taxes (Malaysia) — predictable.""" paths = fixed_paths(n_paths=1, n_years=25, stock_ret=0.0, bond_ret=0.0, cpi=0.0) return dict( paths=paths, initial_portfolio=1_000_000.0, spending_target=40_000.0, glide=static(0.6), strategy=TrinityStrategy(initial_rate=0.04), regime=MalaysiaTaxRegime(), ) def test_no_adjustments_matches_baseline() -> None: base = simulate(**_baseline_kwargs()) # type: ignore[arg-type] with_zero = simulate(**_baseline_kwargs(), cashflow_adjustments=np.zeros(25)) # type: ignore[arg-type] np.testing.assert_allclose(base.portfolio_real, with_zero.portfolio_real) def test_extra_outflows_show_up_in_withdrawal_trace() -> None: """A £100k spending bump in years 5-10 should be visible on the withdrawal trace — not just silently drained from the portfolio.""" kwargs = _baseline_kwargs() adj = np.zeros(25, dtype=np.float64) extras = np.zeros(25, dtype=np.float64) adj[5:11] = -100_000.0 # drains the portfolio extras[5:11] = 100_000.0 # surfaces on the chart base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type] bumped = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj, extra_outflows=extras) # type: ignore[arg-type] # Year 0–4 unchanged (no extra outflow) np.testing.assert_allclose(base.withdrawal_real[:, :5], bumped.withdrawal_real[:, :5]) # Years 5–10 should be ~100k higher than baseline (clipped only when # the portfolio was already drained — checked by spot-test). assert (bumped.withdrawal_real[:, 5:11] > base.withdrawal_real[:, 5:11]).all() # Year 5 specifically: strategy w (~40k) + 100k extra ≈ 140k. assert bumped.withdrawal_real[0, 5] == pytest.approx(140_000.0, rel=0.05) def test_one_time_inheritance_lifts_portfolio() -> None: kwargs = _baseline_kwargs() adj = events_to_cashflow_array( [EventInput(year_start=10, one_time_amount_gbp=250_000)], horizon_years=25, ) base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type] enhanced = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type] # Year 11 onward should be exactly £250k higher under 0% returns + # constant Trinity withdrawal. delta = enhanced.portfolio_real[0, 11:] - base.portfolio_real[0, 11:] assert np.all(delta > 0) # Year 11 specifically: +£250k landed at end of year 10, withdrawn # nothing extra in y10. By y11 just propagated forward. assert enhanced.portfolio_real[0, 11] - base.portfolio_real[0, 11] == 250_000 def test_ongoing_expense_drains_portfolio() -> None: kwargs = _baseline_kwargs() adj = events_to_cashflow_array( [EventInput(year_start=0, year_end=5, delta_gbp_per_year=-20_000)], horizon_years=25, ) base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type] drained = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type] # 6 years × £20k expense = £120k less by end of year 6, 0% growth. delta = base.portfolio_real[0, 6] - drained.portfolio_real[0, 6] assert delta == 120_000 def test_event_can_force_failure() -> None: """A massive expense early on can ruin an otherwise-successful run.""" kwargs = _baseline_kwargs() adj = events_to_cashflow_array( [EventInput(year_start=2, one_time_amount_gbp=-1_500_000)], horizon_years=25, ) base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type] ruined = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type] assert base.success_rate == 1.0 assert ruined.success_rate == 0.0