f0ce7b0363
New stacks/fire-planner/ mirrors payslip-ingest layout:
- ExternalSecret pulling RECOMPUTE_BEARER_TOKEN from Vault secret/fire-planner
- DB ExternalSecret templating DB_CONNECTION_STRING via static role pg-fire-planner
- FastAPI Deployment (serve), CronJob (recompute-all monthly on 2nd at 09:00 UTC,
scheduled after wealthfolio-sync's 1st at 08:00), ClusterIP Service
- Grafana datasource ConfigMap "FirePlanner" — `database` inside jsonData
(cc56ba29 fix; otherwise Grafana 11.2+ hits "you do not have default database")
Plus:
- vault/main.tf: pg-fire-planner static role (7d rotation), allowed_roles
- dbaas/modules/dbaas/main.tf: null_resource creates fire_planner DB+role
- monitoring/dashboards/fire-planner.json: 9-panel Finance-folder dashboard
(NW timeseries, MC fan chart, success heatmap, lifetime tax bars,
years-to-ruin table, optimal leave-UK stat, ending wealth stat,
UK success-by-strategy bars, sequence-risk correlation table)
- monitoring/modules/monitoring/grafana.tf: register "fire-planner.json" in Finance folder
Apply order:
1. vault stack — creates the static role
2. dbaas stack — creates the database & role
3. external-secrets stack picks up vault-database refs (no change needed)
4. fire-planner stack — first apply with -target=kubernetes_manifest.db_external_secret
before full apply, per the plan-time-data-source pattern
5. monitoring stack — picks up the new dashboard ConfigMap
[ci skip]
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
226 lines
11 KiB
JSON
226 lines
11 KiB
JSON
{
|
||
"annotations": {
|
||
"list": [
|
||
{
|
||
"builtIn": 1,
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "datasource", "uid": "grafana"},
|
||
"enable": true,
|
||
"hide": true,
|
||
"iconColor": "rgba(0, 211, 255, 1)",
|
||
"name": "Annotations & Alerts",
|
||
"type": "dashboard"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
"description": "FIRE Retirement Planner — risk-adjusted, tax-minimised Monte Carlo over jurisdictions, withdrawal strategies, and UK-departure years. Backed by fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw.",
|
||
"editable": true,
|
||
"fiscalYearStartMonth": 0,
|
||
"id": null,
|
||
"templating": {
|
||
"list": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "scenario",
|
||
"type": "query",
|
||
"label": "Scenario",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"query": "SELECT external_id FROM fire_planner.scenario ORDER BY external_id",
|
||
"refresh": 1,
|
||
"includeAll": false,
|
||
"multi": false,
|
||
"current": {"selected": false, "text": "cyprus-vpw-leave-y3-glide-rising", "value": "cyprus-vpw-leave-y3-glide-rising"}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
"links": [],
|
||
"panels": [
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 1,
|
||
"title": "Net worth over time (real + nominal)",
|
||
"type": "timeseries",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 24, "x": 0, "y": 0},
|
||
"fieldConfig": {
|
||
"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0},
|
||
"overrides": []
|
||
},
|
||
"options": {"legend": {"displayMode": "table", "showLegend": true}, "tooltip": {"mode": "multi"}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "time_series",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT snapshot_date AS time, account_name AS metric, SUM(market_value_gbp) AS value FROM fire_planner.account_snapshot WHERE snapshot_date >= NOW() - INTERVAL '10 years' GROUP BY snapshot_date, account_name ORDER BY snapshot_date"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 2,
|
||
"title": "Monte Carlo fan chart — selected scenario",
|
||
"type": "timeseries",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 10, "w": 24, "x": 0, "y": 8},
|
||
"description": "P10/p25/p50/p75/p90 portfolio value across MC paths, for the scenario picked in the selector at the top.",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"legend": {"displayMode": "table", "showLegend": true}, "tooltip": {"mode": "multi"}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "time_series",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval) AS time, 'p10' AS metric, p10_portfolio_gbp AS value FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p25', p25_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p50', p50_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p75', p75_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p90', p90_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' ORDER BY time"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 3,
|
||
"title": "Confidence heatmap — jurisdiction × strategy",
|
||
"type": "table",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 18},
|
||
"description": "Median success rate by (jurisdiction, strategy), averaged across leave-UK years and glide paths.",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {
|
||
"defaults": {"custom": {"align": "left", "displayMode": "auto"}, "unit": "percentunit", "decimals": 2},
|
||
"overrides": []
|
||
},
|
||
"options": {"showHeader": true},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, strategy, AVG(success_rate) AS avg_success FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary GROUP BY jurisdiction, strategy ORDER BY jurisdiction, strategy"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 4,
|
||
"title": "Median lifetime tax — by jurisdiction",
|
||
"type": "barchart",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 12, "y": 18},
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"orientation": "horizontal", "showValue": "auto", "stacking": "none", "legend": {"displayMode": "list"}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, AVG(median_lifetime_tax_gbp) AS lifetime_tax FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary GROUP BY jurisdiction ORDER BY lifetime_tax DESC"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 5,
|
||
"title": "Withdrawal runway — years to ruin (failing paths)",
|
||
"type": "table",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 26},
|
||
"description": "Among scenarios where some MC paths failed, the median year-to-ruin. Empty where every path survives.",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "y", "decimals": 1}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"showHeader": true},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, strategy, leave_uk_year, glide_path, median_years_to_ruin FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE median_years_to_ruin IS NOT NULL ORDER BY median_years_to_ruin ASC LIMIT 20"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 6,
|
||
"title": "Optimal leave-UK year",
|
||
"type": "stat",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 4, "w": 6, "x": 12, "y": 26},
|
||
"description": "leave_uk_year that maximises success_rate − lifetime_tax (tax in £M; small weighting).",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "none"}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"colorMode": "value", "reduceOptions": {"calcs": ["lastNotNull"]}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT leave_uk_year FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE jurisdiction <> 'uk' ORDER BY (success_rate - median_lifetime_tax_gbp / 1000000.0) DESC LIMIT 1"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 7,
|
||
"title": "Median ending wealth — selected scenario",
|
||
"type": "stat",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 4, "w": 6, "x": 18, "y": 26},
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"colorMode": "value", "reduceOptions": {"calcs": ["lastNotNull"]}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT p50_ending_gbp FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE scenario_id = (SELECT id FROM fire_planner.scenario WHERE external_id = '$scenario')"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 8,
|
||
"title": "Success rate vs spend (UK-stay)",
|
||
"type": "barchart",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 30},
|
||
"description": "Sanity gauge — UK success rate by strategy, helps anchor expectations against published cFIREsim numbers.",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "percentunit", "decimals": 2}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"orientation": "horizontal", "showValue": "auto", "legend": {"displayMode": "list"}},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT strategy, AVG(success_rate) AS success FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE jurisdiction = 'uk' GROUP BY strategy ORDER BY success DESC"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"id": 9,
|
||
"title": "Sequence-of-returns sensitivity (top failing scenarios)",
|
||
"type": "table",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 12, "y": 30},
|
||
"description": "Pearson correlation between year-1 portfolio drawdown and overall success — strongly negative ⇒ scenario is sequence-of-returns sensitive (case for the rising-equity glide).",
|
||
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "none", "decimals": 4}, "overrides": []},
|
||
"options": {"showHeader": true},
|
||
"targets": [
|
||
{
|
||
"refId": "A",
|
||
"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
|
||
"rawQuery": true,
|
||
"editorMode": "code",
|
||
"format": "table",
|
||
"rawSql": "SELECT s.external_id, r.sequence_risk_correlation, r.success_rate FROM fire_planner.mc_run r JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE r.id IN (SELECT MAX(id) FROM fire_planner.mc_run GROUP BY scenario_id) ORDER BY r.sequence_risk_correlation ASC LIMIT 15"
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"schemaVersion": 39,
|
||
"tags": ["finance", "fire", "retirement", "monte-carlo"],
|
||
"title": "FIRE Planner",
|
||
"uid": "fire-planner",
|
||
"version": 1,
|
||
"weekStart": ""
|
||
}
|