fd0f4a0365
6d224861 came from a --no-checkout worktree whose empty index made the
commit drop every file except two. This restores 05b50d2b's full tree and
correctly adds stacks/stem95su/gdrive-sync.tf + the service-catalog stem95su
entry. Forward-only (parent=6d224861, no force-push); [ci skip] since the
live infra was never applied from the broken commit.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
226 lines
11 KiB
JSON
226 lines
11 KiB
JSON
{
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"annotations": {
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"list": [
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{
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"builtIn": 1,
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"datasource": {"type": "datasource", "uid": "grafana"},
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"enable": true,
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"hide": true,
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"iconColor": "rgba(0, 211, 255, 1)",
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"name": "Annotations & Alerts",
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"type": "dashboard"
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}
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]
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},
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"description": "FIRE Retirement Planner — risk-adjusted, tax-minimised Monte Carlo over jurisdictions, withdrawal strategies, and UK-departure years. Backed by fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw.",
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"editable": true,
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"fiscalYearStartMonth": 0,
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"id": null,
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"templating": {
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"list": [
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{
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"name": "scenario",
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"type": "query",
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"label": "Scenario",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"query": "SELECT external_id FROM fire_planner.scenario ORDER BY external_id",
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"refresh": 1,
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"includeAll": false,
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"multi": false,
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"current": {"selected": false, "text": "cyprus-vpw-leave-y3-glide-rising", "value": "cyprus-vpw-leave-y3-glide-rising"}
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}
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]
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},
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"links": [],
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"panels": [
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{
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"id": 1,
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"title": "Net worth over time (real + nominal)",
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"type": "timeseries",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 24, "x": 0, "y": 0},
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"fieldConfig": {
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"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0},
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"overrides": []
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},
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"options": {"legend": {"displayMode": "table", "showLegend": true}, "tooltip": {"mode": "multi"}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "time_series",
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"rawSql": "SELECT snapshot_date AS time, account_name AS metric, SUM(market_value_gbp) AS value FROM fire_planner.account_snapshot WHERE snapshot_date >= NOW() - INTERVAL '10 years' GROUP BY snapshot_date, account_name ORDER BY snapshot_date"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 2,
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"title": "Monte Carlo fan chart — selected scenario",
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"type": "timeseries",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 10, "w": 24, "x": 0, "y": 8},
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"description": "P10/p25/p50/p75/p90 portfolio value across MC paths, for the scenario picked in the selector at the top.",
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"legend": {"displayMode": "table", "showLegend": true}, "tooltip": {"mode": "multi"}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "time_series",
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"rawSql": "SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval) AS time, 'p10' AS metric, p10_portfolio_gbp AS value FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p25', p25_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p50', p50_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p75', p75_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' UNION ALL SELECT (DATE_TRUNC('year', NOW()) + (year_idx || ' years')::interval), 'p90', p90_portfolio_gbp FROM fire_planner.projection_yearly p JOIN fire_planner.mc_run r ON r.id = p.mc_run_id JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE s.external_id = '$scenario' ORDER BY time"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 3,
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"title": "Confidence heatmap — jurisdiction × strategy",
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"type": "table",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 18},
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"description": "Median success rate by (jurisdiction, strategy), averaged across leave-UK years and glide paths.",
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"fieldConfig": {
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"defaults": {"custom": {"align": "left", "displayMode": "auto"}, "unit": "percentunit", "decimals": 2},
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"overrides": []
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},
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"options": {"showHeader": true},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, strategy, AVG(success_rate) AS avg_success FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary GROUP BY jurisdiction, strategy ORDER BY jurisdiction, strategy"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 4,
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"title": "Median lifetime tax — by jurisdiction",
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"type": "barchart",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 12, "y": 18},
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"orientation": "horizontal", "showValue": "auto", "stacking": "none", "legend": {"displayMode": "list"}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, AVG(median_lifetime_tax_gbp) AS lifetime_tax FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary GROUP BY jurisdiction ORDER BY lifetime_tax DESC"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 5,
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"title": "Withdrawal runway — years to ruin (failing paths)",
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"type": "table",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 26},
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"description": "Among scenarios where some MC paths failed, the median year-to-ruin. Empty where every path survives.",
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "y", "decimals": 1}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"showHeader": true},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT jurisdiction, strategy, leave_uk_year, glide_path, median_years_to_ruin FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE median_years_to_ruin IS NOT NULL ORDER BY median_years_to_ruin ASC LIMIT 20"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 6,
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"title": "Optimal leave-UK year",
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"type": "stat",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 4, "w": 6, "x": 12, "y": 26},
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"description": "leave_uk_year that maximises success_rate − lifetime_tax (tax in £M; small weighting).",
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "none"}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"colorMode": "value", "reduceOptions": {"calcs": ["lastNotNull"]}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT leave_uk_year FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE jurisdiction <> 'uk' ORDER BY (success_rate - median_lifetime_tax_gbp / 1000000.0) DESC LIMIT 1"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 7,
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"title": "Median ending wealth — selected scenario",
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"type": "stat",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 4, "w": 6, "x": 18, "y": 26},
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "currencyGBP", "decimals": 0}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"colorMode": "value", "reduceOptions": {"calcs": ["lastNotNull"]}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT p50_ending_gbp FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE scenario_id = (SELECT id FROM fire_planner.scenario WHERE external_id = '$scenario')"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 8,
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"title": "Success rate vs spend (UK-stay)",
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"type": "barchart",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 0, "y": 30},
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"description": "Sanity gauge — UK success rate by strategy, helps anchor expectations against published cFIREsim numbers.",
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "percentunit", "decimals": 2}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"orientation": "horizontal", "showValue": "auto", "legend": {"displayMode": "list"}},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT strategy, AVG(success_rate) AS success FROM fire_planner.scenario_summary WHERE jurisdiction = 'uk' GROUP BY strategy ORDER BY success DESC"
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}
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]
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},
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{
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"id": 9,
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"title": "Sequence-of-returns sensitivity (top failing scenarios)",
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"type": "table",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"gridPos": {"h": 8, "w": 12, "x": 12, "y": 30},
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"description": "Pearson correlation between year-1 portfolio drawdown and overall success — strongly negative ⇒ scenario is sequence-of-returns sensitive (case for the rising-equity glide).",
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"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "none", "decimals": 4}, "overrides": []},
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"options": {"showHeader": true},
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"targets": [
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{
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"refId": "A",
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"datasource": {"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource", "uid": "fire-planner-pg"},
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"rawQuery": true,
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"editorMode": "code",
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"format": "table",
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"rawSql": "SELECT s.external_id, r.sequence_risk_correlation, r.success_rate FROM fire_planner.mc_run r JOIN fire_planner.scenario s ON s.id = r.scenario_id WHERE r.id IN (SELECT MAX(id) FROM fire_planner.mc_run GROUP BY scenario_id) ORDER BY r.sequence_risk_correlation ASC LIMIT 15"
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}
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]
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}
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],
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"schemaVersion": 39,
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"tags": ["finance", "fire", "retirement", "monte-carlo"],
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"title": "FIRE Planner",
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"uid": "fire-planner",
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"version": 1,
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"weekStart": ""
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}
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