feat(meet-kevin): prompt v2 — forward-looking action + expected_move field

User reported that the old prompt could emit 'sell' on backward-looking
capitulation ('Kevin sold after a 20% drop') — exactly the false signal
to avoid. v2 reframes every per-ticker field as forward-looking and
adds an explicit expected_move enum for the trading bot to weight.

Changes:
- New ExpectedMove enum (up_strong/up_mild/sideways/down_mild/
  down_strong/unknown) in shared/schemas + shared/models, with
  matching kevin_expected_move Postgres enum + column on
  kevin_stock_mentions (migration e5f6a7b8c9d0). NOT NULL with
  server_default 'unknown' so existing rows backfill cleanly.
- SYSTEM_PROMPT rewritten: action semantics now require a FORWARD
  view; reactive sells get downgraded to 'watch' or skipped; the
  rationale_quote must contain forward reasoning. Quality
  checklist updated.
- _ANALYSIS_TOOL JSON schema gains expected_move (required).
- prompt_version v1 → v2 in config + infra + ad-hoc CLI default.
- pipeline.py persists ticker.expected_move into the new column.

Migration safety: the column is NOT NULL DEFAULT 'unknown' so 96
existing mentions auto-fill with 'unknown' (no forward call known
for backward analyses) without breaking any reads.

Cost to backfill the 27 existing analyses with v2 prompt: ~$3 LLM
spend. A follow-up reanalyze script will replay them after this
ships.

alembic/versions/e5f6a7b8c9d0_kevin_expected_move.py

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+"""Add expected_move column to kevin_stock_mentions (prompt v2).
+
+Adds the KevinExpectedMove enum and a NOT NULL column with default
+'unknown' so existing rows keep loading. New analyses produced by the
+v2 prompt will populate it with a real directional view.
+
+Revision ID: e5f6a7b8c9d0
+Revises: d4e5f6a7b8c9
+Create Date: 2026-05-28
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from alembic import op
+from sqlalchemy.dialects import postgresql
+
+revision = "e5f6a7b8c9d0"
+down_revision = "d4e5f6a7b8c9"
+branch_labels = None
+depends_on = None
+
+_ENUM_NAME = "kevin_expected_move"
+_VALUES = ("up_strong", "up_mild", "sideways", "down_mild", "down_strong", "unknown")
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    enum_type = postgresql.ENUM(*_VALUES, name=_ENUM_NAME, create_type=False)
+    enum_type.create(op.get_bind(), checkfirst=True)
+
+    op.add_column(
+        "kevin_stock_mentions",
+        sa.Column(
+            "expected_move",
+            enum_type,
+            nullable=False,
+            server_default="unknown",
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column("kevin_stock_mentions", "expected_move")
+    op.execute(f"DROP TYPE IF EXISTS {_ENUM_NAME}")

scripts/analyze_kevin_video.py

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ no Redis publish — strictly observational.
 Env vars (or pass via flags):
     TRADING_ANTHROPIC_OAUTH_TOKEN   — required (matches what the pod uses)
     TRADING_MEET_KEVIN_LLM_MODEL    — default: claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
-    TRADING_MEET_KEVIN_PROMPT_VERSION — default: v1
+    TRADING_MEET_KEVIN_PROMPT_VERSION — default: v2
 """
 
 from __future__ import annotations
@@ -94,8 +94,8 @@ def print_analysis(video_id: str, captions, result) -> None:
         return
 
     print(f"\n  TICKERS ({len(a.tickers)}):")
-    print(f"    {'SYMBOL':<8} {'ACTION':<7} {'CONV':>6} {'HORIZON':<11} {'RATIONALE'}")
-    print(f"    {'-'*8} {'-'*7} {'-'*6} {'-'*11} {'-'*60}")
+    print(f"    {'SYMBOL':<8} {'ACTION':<7} {'EXPECTED':<12} {'CONV':>6} {'HORIZON':<11} {'RATIONALE'}")
+    print(f"    {'-'*8} {'-'*7} {'-'*12} {'-'*6} {'-'*11} {'-'*60}")
     # sort by action priority (buy/sell first), then conviction desc
     action_rank = {"buy": 0, "sell": 1, "hold": 2, "watch": 3, "avoid": 4}
     sorted_t = sorted(
@@ -107,9 +107,12 @@ def print_analysis(video_id: str, captions, result) -> None:
     )
     for t in sorted_t:
         rationale = (t.rationale_quote or "").replace("\n", " ")[:60]
+        expected = getattr(t, "expected_move", None)
+        expected_str = expected.value if expected is not None else "—"
         print(
             f"    {t.symbol:<8} "
             f"{t.action.value:<7} "
+            f"{expected_str:<12} "
             f"{fmt_pct(t.conviction):>6} "
             f"{t.time_horizon.value:<11} "
             f"{rationale}"
@@ -127,7 +130,7 @@ async def main() -> None:
     )
     parser.add_argument(
         "--prompt-version",
-        default=os.environ.get("TRADING_MEET_KEVIN_PROMPT_VERSION", "v1"),
+        default=os.environ.get("TRADING_MEET_KEVIN_PROMPT_VERSION", "v2"),
     )
     args = parser.parse_args()
 

services/meet_kevin_watcher/config.py

@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ class MeetKevinWatcherConfig(BaseConfig):
     # LLM analysis settings
     meet_kevin_max_llm_retries: int = 3
     meet_kevin_llm_model: str = "claude-sonnet-4-5"
-    meet_kevin_prompt_version: str = "v1"
+    meet_kevin_prompt_version: str = "v2"
     meet_kevin_daily_cost_cap_usd: float = 5.0
     meet_kevin_inter_video_sleep_seconds: int = 30
 

services/meet_kevin_watcher/llm_analyzer.py

@@ -76,20 +76,49 @@ like "In this video Kevin discusses…" — start directly with the insight.
 
 ### Per-ticker mentions (tickers field)
 Extract every stock, ETF, or crypto ticker that Kevin makes a substantive statement
-about. For each one, fill in the following:
+about. **All fields below must be FORWARD-LOOKING — they describe where Kevin
+expects the stock to go over the stated time_horizon, NOT how it has moved
+recently.** Kevin often reacts to past drops by capitulating ("I sold because it
+dumped 20%") — that is a backward-looking reactive trade and is NOT what we want
+to capture. Only emit an action when Kevin expresses a directional view about
+the FUTURE.
+
+For each ticker, fill in the following:
 
 - **symbol** — The uppercase ticker symbol (e.g. "NVDA", "SPY", "BTC"). If Kevin
   mentions the company name but not the ticker, infer the ticker from the name (e.g.
   "Nvidia" → "NVDA"). Max 6 characters. Only include tickers you are confident about.
 
-- **action** — The clearest action signal you can infer from what Kevin says. Use
-  exactly one of: `buy`, `sell`, `hold`, `watch`, `avoid`. If Kevin expresses
-  interest but no clear directional view, use `watch`. If he says he is exiting or
-  would not touch it, use `sell` or `avoid` respectively. Do not default to `hold`
-  just because you are unsure — skip the ticker instead.
+- **action** — The forward-looking action that would profit from Kevin's predicted
+  next move. Use exactly one of: `buy`, `sell`, `hold`, `watch`, `avoid`.
+  - `buy` — Kevin expresses a forward bullish view (he thinks it goes UP from
+    here). Examples: "I'm loading up", "this is going to $X", "I think this
+    bottoms here and rips".
+  - `sell` — Kevin expresses a forward bearish view (he thinks it goes DOWN
+    from here). Examples: "I'm getting out before earnings", "this is going to
+    crash", "fair value is way below this".
+  - `hold` — Kevin already owns and expects sideways/no-strong-direction.
+  - `watch` — Kevin is interested but waiting for a setup. Used when his view is
+    "I want to buy IF X happens" — not enough conviction yet.
+  - `avoid` — Forward-looking "don't touch this at any price" — Kevin thinks the
+    forward risk/reward is bad.
+  - **Critical filter: if Kevin says "I sold" purely because the stock already
+    dropped (capitulation, profit-taking, stop-loss tripped) and offers no
+    forward view on where it goes from here, use `watch` instead.** A
+    backward-looking reactive sell is NOT a forward-looking `sell` signal.
+  - If unsure, skip the ticker rather than defaulting to `hold`.
+
+- **expected_move** — The forward-looking directional view distilled into a single
+  bucket. Independent of `action`. Use one of: `up_strong` (>= +5% over the
+  horizon), `up_mild` (+1% to +5%), `sideways` (-1% to +1%), `down_mild` (-5% to
+  -1%), `down_strong` (<= -5%), `unknown` (Kevin made no forward-looking call).
+  This is the field the trading bot weights most heavily, so be conservative —
+  use `unknown` when Kevin is reacting to the past instead of predicting the
+  future.
 
 - **conviction** — A float between 0.0 and 1.0 representing how confident Kevin
-  sounds. Use 0.8–1.0 for "I'm buying this aggressively / this is my top pick",
+  sounds **about the forward move** (NOT how loudly he is talking about the past).
+  Use 0.8–1.0 for "I'm buying this aggressively because I expect it to rip",
   0.5–0.7 for a clear directional view with some hedging, 0.2–0.4 for a tentative
   or heavily-caveated take. A ticker Kevin mentions only in passing (< 20 words of
   commentary) should be **skipped entirely** rather than assigned low conviction.
@@ -98,8 +127,9 @@ about. For each one, fill in the following:
   `months`, `long_term`, `unspecified`. If Kevin does not say, use `unspecified`.
 
 - **rationale_quote** — A short verbatim or lightly paraphrased quote (20–80 words)
-  from the transcript that best justifies the action you assigned. Include enough
-  context to be meaningful on its own.
+  from the transcript that best justifies the action you assigned. The quote must
+  contain Kevin's FORWARD-LOOKING reasoning — if you can only find a backward
+  statement ("it dropped 20%"), the ticker doesn't belong in this output.
 
 - **video_timestamp_seconds** — If the transcript includes segment timestamps (lines
   formatted as `[<N>s] <text>`), set this to the integer second where Kevin first
@@ -129,11 +159,16 @@ about. For each one, fill in the following:
 - [ ] `macro_themes` has 2–6 items, each a concise phrase
 - [ ] `key_risks` has 2–5 items, each a concise phrase
 - [ ] `summary` is approximately 200 words
-- [ ] Every ticker in `tickers` has a clear actionable signal (no "I'm not sure")
-- [ ] Tickers mentioned only in passing are omitted
-- [ ] `conviction` values are floats in [0.0, 1.0]
+- [ ] Every ticker in `tickers` has a clear FORWARD-LOOKING signal (no "I sold
+      because it dropped" without a forward view)
+- [ ] Each ticker's `expected_move` matches its `action` (e.g. `buy` should pair
+      with `up_strong` or `up_mild`; `sell` with `down_strong` or `down_mild`)
+- [ ] Tickers mentioned only in passing or only reactively are omitted
+- [ ] `conviction` reflects confidence in the forward move, not volume of past
+      commentary
 - [ ] `time_horizon` is one of the six allowed values
-- [ ] `rationale_quote` is grounded in something Kevin actually said
+- [ ] `rationale_quote` contains Kevin's forward-looking reasoning, not just a
+      backward observation
 - [ ] You are calling `submit_analysis` exactly once with all required fields
 
 Now read the transcript provided in the user message and call `submit_analysis`.
@@ -194,6 +229,7 @@ _ANALYSIS_TOOL: dict[str, Any] = {
                         "time_horizon",
                         "rationale_quote",
                         "video_timestamp_seconds",
+                        "expected_move",
                     ],
                     "properties": {
                         "symbol": {
@@ -231,6 +267,23 @@ _ANALYSIS_TOOL: dict[str, Any] = {
                             "type": ["integer", "null"],
                             "description": "Timestamp in seconds for deep-link target",
                         },
+                        "expected_move": {
+                            "type": "string",
+                            "enum": [
+                                "up_strong",
+                                "up_mild",
+                                "sideways",
+                                "down_mild",
+                                "down_strong",
+                                "unknown",
+                            ],
+                            "description": (
+                                "Forward-looking directional view over time_horizon. "
+                                "up_strong >= +5%, up_mild +1-5%, sideways -1 to +1%, "
+                                "down_mild -5 to -1%, down_strong <= -5%. "
+                                "Use 'unknown' if Kevin makes no directional call."
+                            ),
+                        },
                     },
                 },
             },

services/meet_kevin_watcher/pipeline.py

@@ -247,6 +247,7 @@ async def process_one_video(
                 time_horizon=ticker.time_horizon.value,
                 rationale_quote=ticker.rationale_quote,
                 video_timestamp_seconds=ticker.video_timestamp_seconds,
+                expected_move=ticker.expected_move.value,
             )
             session.add(mention)
 

shared/models/meet_kevin.py

@@ -75,6 +75,21 @@ class KevinTimeHorizon(str, enum.Enum):
     UNSPECIFIED = "unspecified"
 
 
+class KevinExpectedMove(str, enum.Enum):
+    """Forward-looking directional view over the mention's time_horizon.
+
+    Added in prompt_version v2 (2026-05-28) — captures the LLM's prediction
+    of where the stock is going, separate from Kevin's reactive action.
+    """
+
+    UP_STRONG = "up_strong"
+    UP_MILD = "up_mild"
+    SIDEWAYS = "sideways"
+    DOWN_MILD = "down_mild"
+    DOWN_STRONG = "down_strong"
+    UNKNOWN = "unknown"
+
+
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Models
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -232,6 +247,15 @@ class KevinStockMention(Base):
     video_timestamp_seconds: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(
         Integer, nullable=True
     )
+    expected_move: Mapped[KevinExpectedMove] = mapped_column(
+        SAEnum(
+            KevinExpectedMove,
+            name="kevin_expected_move",
+            values_callable=lambda x: [e.value for e in x],
+        ),
+        nullable=False,
+        server_default=KevinExpectedMove.UNKNOWN.value,
+    )
     created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(
         DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=func.now(), nullable=False
     )

shared/schemas/meet_kevin.py

@@ -47,6 +47,23 @@ class MarketOutlook(str, Enum):
     MIXED = "mixed"
 
 
+class ExpectedMove(str, Enum):
+    """Forward-looking directional view on a ticker over its time_horizon.
+
+    Independent of `action` — action records what Kevin recommends doing,
+    expected_move records where the LLM thinks the stock is going next.
+    This is the field the bridge should weight when deciding whether to
+    paper-trade.
+    """
+
+    UP_STRONG = "up_strong"      # >= +5% over the horizon
+    UP_MILD = "up_mild"          # +1% to +5%
+    SIDEWAYS = "sideways"        # -1% to +1%
+    DOWN_MILD = "down_mild"      # -5% to -1%
+    DOWN_STRONG = "down_strong"  # <= -5%
+    UNKNOWN = "unknown"          # Kevin made no directional call
+
+
 class VideoStatus(str, Enum):
     """Status of a video in the processing pipeline."""
 
@@ -92,6 +109,10 @@ class MeetKevinTickerMention(BaseModel):
     video_timestamp_seconds: int | None = Field(
         default=None, description="Timestamp for deep-link target"
     )
+    expected_move: ExpectedMove = Field(
+        default=ExpectedMove.UNKNOWN,
+        description="Forward-looking directional view over time_horizon",
+    )
 
     @field_validator("symbol")
     @classmethod