fire-planner

Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services (wealthfolio, payslip-ingest, hmrc-sync) and returns the after-tax probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".

Layout

• fire_planner/ — package
  • tax/ — per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand, Cyprus, Bulgaria)
  • returns/ — Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap sampler
  • strategies/ — Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPW
  • ingest/ — pulls from wealthfolio / payslip-ingest / hmrc-sync
  • simulator.py — vectorised NumPy MC engine
  • scenarios.py — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy × leave-UK-year × glide)
  • app.py — FastAPI on-demand /recompute
  • __main__.py — click CLI: ingest, simulate, recompute-all, migrate

Common commands

poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .

# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head

# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all

Schema

Six tables in fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw:

• account_snapshot — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
• scenario — Cartesian-product scenario definition
• mc_run — execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)
• mc_path — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
• projection_yearly — deterministic point projection per scenario
• scenario_summary — denormalised fast-read for Grafana