fire-planner/README.md

# fire-planner

Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's
portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services
(`wealthfolio`, `payslip-ingest`, `hmrc-sync`) and returns the after-tax
probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal
strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".

## Layout

- `fire_planner/` — package
  - `tax/` — per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand,
    Cyprus, Bulgaria)
  - `returns/` — Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap sampler
  - `strategies/` — Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPW
  - `ingest/` — pulls from `wealthfolio` / `payslip-ingest` / `hmrc-sync`
  - `simulator.py` — vectorised NumPy MC engine
  - `scenarios.py` — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy ×
    leave-UK-year × glide)
  - `spend_model.py` — per-Case real-GBP spend, COL-scaled per country (the
    FIRE-countdown cases: Solo / Household / Family)
  - `geo.py` — COL city → tax jurisdiction
  - `fire_target.py` — solves each Case's "FIRE number" (smallest liquid NW
    where Guyton-Klinger hits the 99% bar); see `docs/adr/0001`
  - `app.py` — FastAPI on-demand `/recompute`
  - `__main__.py` — `click` CLI: `ingest`, `simulate`, `recompute-all`,
    `recompute-fire-targets`, `migrate`

## Common commands

```bash
poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .

# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head

# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all

# Solve the FIRE-countdown targets (per Case × country) for the wealth
# Grafana dashboard's "FIRE Countdown" section:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-fire-targets --countries all
```

## Schema

Core tables in `fire_planner` schema on `pg-cluster-rw`:

- `account_snapshot` — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
- `scenario` — Cartesian-product scenario definition
- `mc_run` — execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)
- `mc_path` — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
- `projection_yearly` — deterministic point projection per scenario
- `scenario_summary` — denormalised fast-read for Grafana
- `fire_target` — solved FIRE number per (Case × country × with-home) for the
  "FIRE Countdown" section of the wealth Grafana dashboard