engine+api: plumb life events into the simulator
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Until now life events were stored but ignored by the engine — pure
metadata. Now they actually move portfolios.

Engine:
- simulator.simulate() takes optional cashflow_adjustments: a (n_years,)
  real-GBP array applied each year *after* savings + return but
  *before* withdrawal. Positive = inflow, negative = outflow.
- New fire_planner/life_events.py with EventInput dataclass +
  events_to_cashflow_array(events, horizon). Handles ranged deltas,
  one-time amounts, disabled events, year clipping past horizon,
  negative year_start (clipped to 0), and summing multiple events.

API:
- /simulate accepts optional life_events list. Server converts each
  to EventInput, builds cashflow_adjustments, passes to simulate().
- Frontend Run-now on scenario detail now fetches the scenario's
  life events and includes them in the request — projections finally
  reflect "retire at 50, kid born at y3, inheritance at y22".

Tests: 11 events helper + 4 end-to-end engine + 1 API integration =
16 new tests. 188 total (was 172). mypy strict + ruff clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Viktor Barzin 2026-05-09 22:30:33 +00:00
parent b82770b5c4
commit 2fc92c12f5
9 changed files with 335 additions and 4 deletions

View file

@ -203,6 +203,15 @@ class GoalCreate(BaseModel):
# ── simulate / compare ───────────────────────────────────────────────
class LifeEventInput(BaseModel):
"""Engine-level event shape — same as the DB row's relevant fields."""
year_start: int = Field(ge=0, le=100)
year_end: int | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
delta_gbp_per_year: Decimal = Decimal("0")
one_time_amount_gbp: Decimal | None = None
enabled: bool = True
class SimulateRequest(BaseModel):
"""Sync, non-persisted simulate. Used by the React UI for what-if."""
jurisdiction: str
@ -216,6 +225,7 @@ class SimulateRequest(BaseModel):
floor_gbp: Decimal | None = None
n_paths: int = Field(ge=100, le=50_000, default=5_000)
seed: int = 42
life_events: list[LifeEventInput] = Field(default_factory=list)
class SimulateResult(BaseModel):

View file

@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ from fire_planner.api.schemas import (
SimulateResult,
)
from fire_planner.glide_path import get as get_glide
from fire_planner.life_events import EventInput, events_to_cashflow_array
from fire_planner.returns.bootstrap import block_bootstrap
from fire_planner.returns.shiller import load_from_csv, synthetic_returns
from fire_planner.scenarios import build_regime_schedule, build_strategy
@ -47,6 +48,21 @@ def _project(req: SimulateRequest) -> tuple[SimulationResult, float]:
annual_savings = (np.full(req.horizon_years, float(req.savings_per_year_gbp), dtype=np.float64)
if req.savings_per_year_gbp > 0 else None)
floor = float(req.floor_gbp) if req.floor_gbp is not None else None
cashflow_adjustments = None
if req.life_events:
engine_events = [
EventInput(
year_start=ev.year_start,
year_end=ev.year_end,
delta_gbp_per_year=float(ev.delta_gbp_per_year),
one_time_amount_gbp=(float(ev.one_time_amount_gbp)
if ev.one_time_amount_gbp is not None else None),
enabled=ev.enabled,
) for ev in req.life_events
]
cashflow_adjustments = events_to_cashflow_array(engine_events, req.horizon_years)
started = time.perf_counter()
result = simulate(
paths=paths,
@ -57,6 +73,7 @@ def _project(req: SimulateRequest) -> tuple[SimulationResult, float]:
regime=build_regime_schedule(req.jurisdiction, req.leave_uk_year),
horizon_years=req.horizon_years,
annual_savings=annual_savings,
cashflow_adjustments=cashflow_adjustments,
)
elapsed = time.perf_counter() - started
return result, elapsed