engine+api: plumb life events into the simulator
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Until now life events were stored but ignored by the engine — pure
metadata. Now they actually move portfolios.

Engine:
- simulator.simulate() takes optional cashflow_adjustments: a (n_years,)
  real-GBP array applied each year *after* savings + return but
  *before* withdrawal. Positive = inflow, negative = outflow.
- New fire_planner/life_events.py with EventInput dataclass +
  events_to_cashflow_array(events, horizon). Handles ranged deltas,
  one-time amounts, disabled events, year clipping past horizon,
  negative year_start (clipped to 0), and summing multiple events.

API:
- /simulate accepts optional life_events list. Server converts each
  to EventInput, builds cashflow_adjustments, passes to simulate().
- Frontend Run-now on scenario detail now fetches the scenario's
  life events and includes them in the request — projections finally
  reflect "retire at 50, kid born at y3, inheritance at y22".

Tests: 11 events helper + 4 end-to-end engine + 1 API integration =
16 new tests. 188 total (was 172). mypy strict + ruff clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Viktor Barzin 2026-05-09 22:30:33 +00:00
parent b82770b5c4
commit 2fc92c12f5
9 changed files with 335 additions and 4 deletions

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"""End-to-end: cashflow_adjustments make portfolios bigger or smaller."""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
from fire_planner.glide_path import static
from fire_planner.life_events import EventInput, events_to_cashflow_array
from fire_planner.simulator import simulate
from fire_planner.strategies.trinity import TrinityStrategy
from fire_planner.tax.malaysia import MalaysiaTaxRegime
from tests.test_simulator import fixed_paths
def _baseline_kwargs() -> dict[str, object]:
"""0% real returns, 25y, Trinity 4%, no taxes (Malaysia) — predictable."""
paths = fixed_paths(n_paths=1, n_years=25, stock_ret=0.0, bond_ret=0.0, cpi=0.0)
return dict(
paths=paths,
initial_portfolio=1_000_000.0,
spending_target=40_000.0,
glide=static(0.6),
strategy=TrinityStrategy(initial_rate=0.04),
regime=MalaysiaTaxRegime(),
)
def test_no_adjustments_matches_baseline() -> None:
base = simulate(**_baseline_kwargs()) # type: ignore[arg-type]
with_zero = simulate(**_baseline_kwargs(), cashflow_adjustments=np.zeros(25)) # type: ignore[arg-type]
np.testing.assert_allclose(base.portfolio_real, with_zero.portfolio_real)
def test_one_time_inheritance_lifts_portfolio() -> None:
kwargs = _baseline_kwargs()
adj = events_to_cashflow_array(
[EventInput(year_start=10, one_time_amount_gbp=250_000)],
horizon_years=25,
)
base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type]
enhanced = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type]
# Year 11 onward should be exactly £250k higher under 0% returns +
# constant Trinity withdrawal.
delta = enhanced.portfolio_real[0, 11:] - base.portfolio_real[0, 11:]
assert np.all(delta > 0)
# Year 11 specifically: +£250k landed at end of year 10, withdrawn
# nothing extra in y10. By y11 just propagated forward.
assert enhanced.portfolio_real[0, 11] - base.portfolio_real[0, 11] == 250_000
def test_ongoing_expense_drains_portfolio() -> None:
kwargs = _baseline_kwargs()
adj = events_to_cashflow_array(
[EventInput(year_start=0, year_end=5, delta_gbp_per_year=-20_000)],
horizon_years=25,
)
base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type]
drained = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type]
# 6 years × £20k expense = £120k less by end of year 6, 0% growth.
delta = base.portfolio_real[0, 6] - drained.portfolio_real[0, 6]
assert delta == 120_000
def test_event_can_force_failure() -> None:
"""A massive expense early on can ruin an otherwise-successful run."""
kwargs = _baseline_kwargs()
adj = events_to_cashflow_array(
[EventInput(year_start=2, one_time_amount_gbp=-1_500_000)],
horizon_years=25,
)
base = simulate(**kwargs) # type: ignore[arg-type]
ruined = simulate(**kwargs, cashflow_adjustments=adj) # type: ignore[arg-type]
assert base.success_rate == 1.0
assert ruined.success_rate == 0.0