docs(fire-planner): document FIRE countdown; flag stale playbook

README: add spend_model/geo/fire_target modules, the recompute-fire-targets
command, and the fire_target table. PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md: add a superseded-notice
header — it anchors on Cyprus/£1.5M/£60k, but the base case moved to Bulgaria,
real NW is ~£1.13M, and the simulator now drains tax (so its regime-invariant
claim is false). Point readers to the live FIRE Countdown dashboard.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md

@@ -1,5 +1,17 @@
 # Viktor's UK-exit playbook — derived from fire-planner runs
 
+> ⚠️ **Partially superseded (2026-06).** This 2026-04-26 run anchors on
+> Cyprus, NW £1.5M, and £60k spend. Later decisions moved the base case to
+> **Bulgaria**, the real measured NW is **~£1.13M** (not the aspirational
+> £1.5M), and the real spend floor is **~£40k** (the £60k was padding). Also,
+> the simulator now **drains tax from the portfolio** (since 2026-05), so the
+> old "success rate is regime-invariant" claim below is **no longer true** —
+> jurisdiction now moves the FIRE number. The live, current view is the
+> **"FIRE Countdown"** section of the wealth Grafana dashboard, backed by the
+> `fire_target` table (see `CONTEXT.md` + `docs/adr/0001`). Treat the tax-
+> optimisation playbook (§3) as still useful, but re-validate the headline
+> numbers against the dashboard.
+
 **Run date**: 2026-04-26
 **Working anchor**: NW £1.5M today, £60k/yr real spending target,
 £40k floor, target departure 2027–2028 (year 1 or 2 from today),

README.md

@@ -17,9 +17,14 @@ strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".
   - `simulator.py` — vectorised NumPy MC engine
   - `scenarios.py` — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy ×
     leave-UK-year × glide)
+  - `spend_model.py` — per-Case real-GBP spend, COL-scaled per country (the
+    FIRE-countdown cases: Solo / Household / Family)
+  - `geo.py` — COL city → tax jurisdiction
+  - `fire_target.py` — solves each Case's "FIRE number" (smallest liquid NW
+    where Guyton-Klinger hits the 99% bar); see `docs/adr/0001`
   - `app.py` — FastAPI on-demand `/recompute`
   - `__main__.py` — `click` CLI: `ingest`, `simulate`, `recompute-all`,
-    `migrate`
+    `recompute-fire-targets`, `migrate`
 
 ## Common commands
 
@@ -37,11 +42,15 @@ DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head
 DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
 DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
 DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all
+
+# Solve the FIRE-countdown targets (per Case × country) for the wealth
+# Grafana dashboard's "FIRE Countdown" section:
+DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-fire-targets --countries all
 ```
 
 ## Schema
 
-Six tables in `fire_planner` schema on `pg-cluster-rw`:
+Core tables in `fire_planner` schema on `pg-cluster-rw`:
 
 - `account_snapshot` — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
 - `scenario` — Cartesian-product scenario definition
@@ -49,3 +58,5 @@ Six tables in `fire_planner` schema on `pg-cluster-rw`:
 - `mc_path` — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
 - `projection_yearly` — deterministic point projection per scenario
 - `scenario_summary` — denormalised fast-read for Grafana
+- `fire_target` — solved FIRE number per (Case × country × with-home) for the
+  "FIRE Countdown" section of the wealth Grafana dashboard