fire-planner: ProjectionLab parity Wave 1 — tabbed shell, year stats, goals,

income streams, Sankey cashflow, progress overlay, settings sub-pages

Wave 1 (9 features across 4 streams):

Stream A — dashboard skeleton
  1.A.1 ScenarioShell with top tabs (Plan/Cash Flow/Tax Analytics/Compare/
        Reports/Estate/Settings) + left Sidebar with Plans switcher.
  1.A.2 GET /scenarios/{id}/year-stats?year=N returning per-year metrics
        (NW, Δ NW, taxable income, taxes, eff. rate, spending, contribs,
        investment growth). YearScrubber + YearStatsPanel render the
        right-hand sidebar; URL ?year= preserves selection.
  1.A.3 FanChart gains optional `milestones` prop (lib/milestone.ts maps
        life_event.kind → emoji) + selectedYear marker line.

Stream B — goals + progress
  1.B.1 New goals_eval module: target_nw_by_year / never_run_out /
        target_real_income probability evaluation. Wired into POST
        /simulate (exact, per-path) and GET /scenarios/{id}/projection
        (approximated from persisted fan via percentile interpolation).
        GoalsSection renders pass/fail badges.
  1.B.2 GET /scenarios/{id}/progress overlays AccountSnapshot totals on
        the projection fan; ProgressPage shows variance side-panel.

Stream C — income + cashflow
  1.C.1 New IncomeStream model + alembic 0003 + CRUD endpoints. Engine
        aggregates streams into per-year inflows + taxable arrays;
        income tax routes through the jurisdiction tax engine.
        IncomeStreamsSection on Plan tab.
  1.C.2 GET /scenarios/{id}/cashflow?year=N returns sources/sinks for
        an ECharts Sankey (sums conserve). CashflowTab body.

Stream D — settings
  1.D.1 SettingsTab + sub-nav (Milestones/Rates/Dividends/Bonds/Tax/
        Metrics/Other/Notes); placeholder cards for unbuilt sub-pages.
  1.D.2 LifeEventsSection relocated to /scenarios/:id/settings.
  1.D.3 RatesSettings (Fixed/Historical/Advanced segmented + per-asset
        cards). SimulateRequest gains rates_mode, inflation_pct,
        stocks/bonds growth + dividend, stocks_allocation. New
        build_fixed_paths() in simulator. Real-return arithmetic
        verified against (1+g+d)/(1+i)−1 ≈ 5.4%.
  1.D.4 NotesSettings — markdown textarea, save-on-blur, stored in
        scenario.config_json.notes.

Backend: 238 pytest pass (+19 new), mypy + ruff clean.
Frontend: typecheck + 7 unit tests + production build clean.

Roadmap for Wave 2-N is documented in the implementation plan.

fire_planner/api/progress.py

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+"""Progress overlay — actual NW from `account_snapshot` vs the persisted
+projection fan.
+
+Used by the left-sidebar "Progress" page. The alignment anchor is the
+earliest available snapshot date (year 0 of the projection); subsequent
+snapshots are bucketed into the projection's calendar-year axis so the
+overlay lines up.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from collections import defaultdict
+from datetime import date
+from decimal import Decimal
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+from fire_planner.api.dependencies import get_session
+from fire_planner.api.schemas import (
+    ProgressActualPoint,
+    ProgressProjectedPoint,
+    ProgressResponse,
+    ProgressVariancePoint,
+)
+from fire_planner.db import AccountSnapshot, McRun, ProjectionYearly, Scenario
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/scenarios", tags=["progress"])
+
+
+@router.get("/{scenario_id}/progress", response_model=ProgressResponse)
+async def get_progress(
+    scenario_id: int,
+    session: AsyncSession = Depends(get_session),
+) -> ProgressResponse:
+    scen = await session.get(Scenario, scenario_id)
+    if scen is None:
+        raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Scenario not found")
+
+    actuals_rows = (await session.execute(
+        select(
+            AccountSnapshot.snapshot_date,
+            AccountSnapshot.market_value_gbp,
+        ))).all()
+
+    by_date: dict[date, Decimal] = defaultdict(lambda: Decimal("0"))
+    for snap_date, value in actuals_rows:
+        by_date[snap_date] += Decimal(str(value))
+
+    actual = [
+        ProgressActualPoint(snapshot_date=d, total_gbp=by_date[d]) for d in sorted(by_date.keys())
+    ]
+    if actual:
+        anchor = actual[0].snapshot_date
+    else:
+        anchor = scen.created_at.date() if scen.created_at is not None else date.today()
+
+    run = (await session.execute(
+        select(McRun).where(McRun.scenario_id == scenario_id).order_by(
+            McRun.run_at.desc()).limit(1))).scalar_one_or_none()
+    projected: list[ProgressProjectedPoint] = []
+    yearly_rows: list[ProjectionYearly] = []
+    if run is not None:
+        rows = (await session.execute(
+            select(ProjectionYearly).where(ProjectionYearly.mc_run_id == run.id).order_by(
+                ProjectionYearly.year_idx))).scalars().all()
+        yearly_rows = list(rows)
+        projected = [
+            ProgressProjectedPoint(
+                year_idx=r.year_idx,
+                p10_portfolio_gbp=r.p10_portfolio_gbp,
+                p50_portfolio_gbp=r.p50_portfolio_gbp,
+                p90_portfolio_gbp=r.p90_portfolio_gbp,
+            ) for r in yearly_rows
+        ]
+
+    variance: list[ProgressVariancePoint] = []
+    if yearly_rows and actual:
+        actuals_by_year: dict[int, list[Decimal]] = defaultdict(list)
+        for pt in actual:
+            year_idx = (pt.snapshot_date.year - anchor.year)
+            if year_idx >= 0:
+                actuals_by_year[year_idx].append(pt.total_gbp)
+        for r in yearly_rows:
+            samples = actuals_by_year.get(r.year_idx)
+            if not samples:
+                continue
+            avg = sum(samples, Decimal("0")) / Decimal(len(samples))
+            projected_p50 = Decimal(str(r.p50_portfolio_gbp))
+            variance.append(
+                ProgressVariancePoint(
+                    year_idx=r.year_idx,
+                    actual_avg_gbp=avg,
+                    projected_p50_gbp=projected_p50,
+                    delta_gbp=avg - projected_p50,
+                ))
+
+    return ProgressResponse(
+        scenario_id=scenario_id,
+        alignment_anchor=anchor,
+        actual=actual,
+        projected=projected,
+        variance=variance,
+    )