strategies: spending input is honoured + new "Custom" preset with guardrails
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The user noticed the "Annual spending" field was a no-op for Trinity,
GK, VPW, VPW+floor — the strategies internally hardcoded the year-0
withdrawal as `initial_portfolio × initial_rate` (4% / 5.5%) and
ignored what the user typed. Two fixes:
(1) Trinity + GK now use state.initial_withdrawal (= the user's
spending_target) as the year-0 draw. GK's guardrail anchor
becomes the implied initial rate (initial_withdrawal /
initial_portfolio), so the rule shape adapts to the user's
chosen rate. Both strategies still fall back to their preset
rate × initial_portfolio when initial_withdrawal isn't set
(test paths). VPW and VPW+floor stay algorithmic — they're
"withdraw-what's-sustainable" by design and don't take a
spending input.
(2) New "custom" preset (SpendingPlanStrategy) exposing all the
knobs:
- initial_spend = "Annual spending" input
- annual_real_adjust_pct = scale last year's withdrawal by N%
each year (0 = constant real £, +0.02 = 2%/yr healthcare
creep, -0.005 = -0.5%/yr slow-down with age)
- guardrail_threshold_pct = if portfolio falls below X% of
starting NW, trigger a cut (None = disabled)
- guardrail_cut_pct = cut last year's withdrawal by Y% each
triggered year
Adjust applies first, then guardrail cut — so a triggered year in
+2% adjust mode goes 40k → 40.8k → 36.7k.
UI: "custom" added to the strategy dropdown; when selected, three
extra fields appear (annual real adjustment %, guardrail trigger
threshold, guardrail cut size) with hints. The existing inputs
(spending, NW seed) drive year 0 across all strategies that use
them. About-the-model panel updated.
10 new tests on SpendingPlanStrategy + adjusted GK tests for the
new spending_target-aware behaviour. 209 backend tests + 7
frontend tests. mypy + ruff + tsc all pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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10 changed files with 300 additions and 21 deletions
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@ -105,13 +105,22 @@ def _project(req: SimulateRequest, paths: np.ndarray) -> tuple[SimulationResult,
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]
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cashflow_adjustments = events_to_cashflow_array(engine_events, req.horizon_years)
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strategy = build_strategy(
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req.strategy,
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floor=floor,
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annual_real_adjust_pct=float(req.annual_real_adjust_pct),
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guardrail_threshold_pct=(float(req.guardrail_threshold_pct)
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if req.guardrail_threshold_pct is not None else None),
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guardrail_cut_pct=float(req.guardrail_cut_pct),
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)
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started = time.perf_counter()
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result = simulate(
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paths=paths,
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initial_portfolio=float(req.nw_seed_gbp),
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spending_target=float(req.spending_gbp),
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glide=get_glide(req.glide_path),
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strategy=build_strategy(req.strategy, floor=floor),
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strategy=strategy,
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regime=build_regime_schedule(req.jurisdiction, req.leave_uk_year),
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horizon_years=req.horizon_years,
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annual_savings=annual_savings,
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