The What-If form was a 14-field stack with always-visible hint
paragraphs — ~1500px scroll before "Run". The user is single-allocation
(100% stocks), so the glide-path knob was noise. Hardcoded
`static(1.0)` at the API layer; dropped `glide_path` from
`SimulateRequest` (extra field on persisted Scenario rows still
honoured for Cartesian sweeps).
Frontend reorganised into anchor numbers (NW / spend / horizon at
text-2xl), a Plan card (jurisdiction + leave-UK + strategy chips +
conditional Floor/Custom sub-card), a Returns card (3-chip segmented
control with inline manual %), and a folded Advanced section
(savings, MC paths, seed). Verbose hints moved into ⓘ popovers next
to each label. Two new primitives: SegmentedControl + InfoTip.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The user noticed the "Annual spending" field was a no-op for Trinity,
GK, VPW, VPW+floor — the strategies internally hardcoded the year-0
withdrawal as `initial_portfolio × initial_rate` (4% / 5.5%) and
ignored what the user typed. Two fixes:
(1) Trinity + GK now use state.initial_withdrawal (= the user's
spending_target) as the year-0 draw. GK's guardrail anchor
becomes the implied initial rate (initial_withdrawal /
initial_portfolio), so the rule shape adapts to the user's
chosen rate. Both strategies still fall back to their preset
rate × initial_portfolio when initial_withdrawal isn't set
(test paths). VPW and VPW+floor stay algorithmic — they're
"withdraw-what's-sustainable" by design and don't take a
spending input.
(2) New "custom" preset (SpendingPlanStrategy) exposing all the
knobs:
- initial_spend = "Annual spending" input
- annual_real_adjust_pct = scale last year's withdrawal by N%
each year (0 = constant real £, +0.02 = 2%/yr healthcare
creep, -0.005 = -0.5%/yr slow-down with age)
- guardrail_threshold_pct = if portfolio falls below X% of
starting NW, trigger a cut (None = disabled)
- guardrail_cut_pct = cut last year's withdrawal by Y% each
triggered year
Adjust applies first, then guardrail cut — so a triggered year in
+2% adjust mode goes 40k → 40.8k → 36.7k.
UI: "custom" added to the strategy dropdown; when selected, three
extra fields appear (annual real adjustment %, guardrail trigger
threshold, guardrail cut size) with hints. The existing inputs
(spending, NW seed) drive year 0 across all strategies that use
them. About-the-model panel updated.
10 new tests on SpendingPlanStrategy + adjusted GK tests for the
new spending_target-aware behaviour. 209 backend tests + 7
frontend tests. mypy + ruff + tsc all pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds a "Returns model" picker on /what-if that switches how the
simulator's `paths` (n_paths × n_years × 3) is built:
1. shiller (default) — current behaviour, block-bootstrap of the
Shiller 1871+ historical series (or its synthetic-calibrated
fallback when the CSV isn't mounted).
2. manual — every year of every path = the user's "real return %"
input. Deterministic, no fan, useful for sanity checks. New
helper `constant_real_return_paths` constructs the (n_paths,
n_years, 3) tensor with stock=bond=real, cpi=0 so the simulator's
`(1+nominal)/(1+cpi)-1` short-circuits to exactly the input.
3. wealthfolio — pulls daily_account_valuation from the wealthfolio_sync
PG mirror, sums total_value + net_contribution across accounts per
day (FX-adjusted), strips contribution deltas to isolate market
return, compounds daily returns into per-calendar-year samples,
block-bootstraps with block_size=1 (only ~6 distinct samples
available, no serial-correlation signal to preserve). Glide path
is a no-op in this mode — the user's actual blended portfolio is
treated as a single asset.
API: SimulateRequest gains `returns_mode` ("shiller"|"manual"|
"wealthfolio") + `manual_real_return_pct`. simulate.py's `_build_paths`
dispatches; wealthfolio mode opens a transient session against the
mirror DB.
UI: new Field on the form (next to Strategy / Glide path) with a
contextual hint that explains each option's tradeoff. The "About the
model" panel at the bottom now has a "Returns model" section
mirroring the same content. The Manual % input only shows when
returns_mode='manual'.
10 new tests on the Wealthfolio helper (contribution-stripping,
multi-account aggregation, FX, partial-year drop, TOTAL filter,
empty-input, plus 3 deterministic-paths tests). 198 backend tests +
7 frontend tests. mypy strict + ruff + tsc strict all pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The SPA can't carry a Bearer header — there's no client-side mechanism
to obtain the RECOMPUTE_BEARER_TOKEN, and the value can't safely be
embedded in the JS bundle. Result: every POST/PATCH/DELETE on
scenarios/life-events/goals + every /simulate + /compare returned 401
in prod, breaking the SPA end-to-end.
Strip require_bearer from the routers. Authentik forward-auth on the
SPA path (/) is now the security boundary; /api/* is open at both
ingress + app level. Single-tenant personal tool — the data is
the user's own anonymous numeric projections.
Kept on /recompute (heavy admin batch in app.py) since that's an
operator action, not a user one.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Until now life events were stored but ignored by the engine — pure
metadata. Now they actually move portfolios.
Engine:
- simulator.simulate() takes optional cashflow_adjustments: a (n_years,)
real-GBP array applied each year *after* savings + return but
*before* withdrawal. Positive = inflow, negative = outflow.
- New fire_planner/life_events.py with EventInput dataclass +
events_to_cashflow_array(events, horizon). Handles ranged deltas,
one-time amounts, disabled events, year clipping past horizon,
negative year_start (clipped to 0), and summing multiple events.
API:
- /simulate accepts optional life_events list. Server converts each
to EventInput, builds cashflow_adjustments, passes to simulate().
- Frontend Run-now on scenario detail now fetches the scenario's
life events and includes them in the request — projections finally
reflect "retire at 50, kid born at y3, inheritance at y22".
Tests: 11 events helper + 4 end-to-end engine + 1 API integration =
16 new tests. 188 total (was 172). mypy strict + ruff clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds the read+write endpoints the frontend needs to drive a
ProjectionLab-style UX on top of the existing engine.
- /networth, /networth/history — NW total + per-account from
account_snapshot (frontend chart)
- /scenarios CRUD + projection — list/get/create/patch/delete user
scenarios; cartesian read-only
- /scenarios/{id}/life-events — life event CRUD nested under scenario
- /life-events/{id} — patch + delete by id
- /scenarios/{id}/goals,
/goals/{id} — retirement goal CRUD
- /simulate, /compare — sync, no-DB-write what-if endpoints
Auth: Bearer-token dependency on writes + simulate when API_BEARER_TOKEN
is set; reads always open (lock down via Authentik-fronted ingress in
prod). Existing /recompute keeps its bearer auth.
CORS middleware reads FRONTEND_ORIGINS (comma-separated) for the dev
SPA. Lifespan now provisions the SQLAlchemy engine + session_factory
on app.state and disposes them on shutdown.
40 new tests covering happy paths and validation. 172 tests total.
mypy strict + ruff clean (B008 ignore added — Depends() in defaults
is the canonical FastAPI pattern, not a bug).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
