Migrated from monorepo during Forgejo registry consolidation 2026-05-07
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Adds a "Returns model" picker on /what-if that switches how the
simulator's `paths` (n_paths × n_years × 3) is built:
1. shiller (default) — current behaviour, block-bootstrap of the
Shiller 1871+ historical series (or its synthetic-calibrated
fallback when the CSV isn't mounted).
2. manual — every year of every path = the user's "real return %"
input. Deterministic, no fan, useful for sanity checks. New
helper `constant_real_return_paths` constructs the (n_paths,
n_years, 3) tensor with stock=bond=real, cpi=0 so the simulator's
`(1+nominal)/(1+cpi)-1` short-circuits to exactly the input.
3. wealthfolio — pulls daily_account_valuation from the wealthfolio_sync
PG mirror, sums total_value + net_contribution across accounts per
day (FX-adjusted), strips contribution deltas to isolate market
return, compounds daily returns into per-calendar-year samples,
block-bootstraps with block_size=1 (only ~6 distinct samples
available, no serial-correlation signal to preserve). Glide path
is a no-op in this mode — the user's actual blended portfolio is
treated as a single asset.
API: SimulateRequest gains `returns_mode` ("shiller"|"manual"|
"wealthfolio") + `manual_real_return_pct`. simulate.py's `_build_paths`
dispatches; wealthfolio mode opens a transient session against the
mirror DB.
UI: new Field on the form (next to Strategy / Glide path) with a
contextual hint that explains each option's tradeoff. The "About the
model" panel at the bottom now has a "Returns model" section
mirroring the same content. The Manual % input only shows when
returns_mode='manual'.
10 new tests on the Wealthfolio helper (contribution-stripping,
multi-account aggregation, FX, partial-year drop, TOTAL filter,
empty-input, plus 3 deterministic-paths tests). 198 backend tests +
7 frontend tests. mypy strict + ruff + tsc strict all pass.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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| alembic | ||
| fire_planner | ||
| frontend | ||
| tests | ||
| .dockerignore | ||
| .gitignore | ||
| .woodpecker.yml | ||
| alembic.ini | ||
| Dockerfile | ||
| PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md | ||
| poetry.lock | ||
| pyproject.toml | ||
| README.md | ||
fire-planner
Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's
portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services
(wealthfolio, payslip-ingest, hmrc-sync) and returns the after-tax
probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal
strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".
Layout
fire_planner/— packagetax/— per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand, Cyprus, Bulgaria)returns/— Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap samplerstrategies/— Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPWingest/— pulls fromwealthfolio/payslip-ingest/hmrc-syncsimulator.py— vectorised NumPy MC enginescenarios.py— Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy × leave-UK-year × glide)app.py— FastAPI on-demand/recompute__main__.py—clickCLI:ingest,simulate,recompute-all,migrate
Common commands
poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .
# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head
# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all
Schema
Six tables in fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw:
account_snapshot— daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)scenario— Cartesian-product scenario definitionmc_run— execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)mc_path— sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)projection_yearly— deterministic point projection per scenarioscenario_summary— denormalised fast-read for Grafana