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Migrated from monorepo during Forgejo registry consolidation 2026-05-07
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Viktor Barzin 1b8809a01b
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fix(fire-target): Family/home targets monotonic (kills Family==Household) 
The recompute solved each Case's FIRE number with an independent binary search,
so Monte-Carlo path noise + the coarse £15k tolerance made Family (Household + 2
kids) tie or even UNDERCUT Household (6 hard inversions + 5 exact ties across the
22 countries) — the ~£20k kids cost quantised to ~£0.

Now solve the Cases in increasing-cost order and lower-bound each by the previous
Case's target on the SAME return paths: a heavier Case (more spend / +kids /
+home) can never need less net worth than a lighter one, so
Solo <= Household <= Family <= Family+home holds by construction. tol tightened
15k -> 1k so the genuine but small kids/home increment resolves instead of
snapping to the previous grid step. Kids/home were already modelled correctly
(verified) — this is purely a solver-resolution + monotonicity fix.

Found + verified via the fire-countdown flaw-hunt workflow. 346 tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-01 22:42:34 +00:00
.github/workflows ci: drop mypy from GHA lint job — strict-mypy drifted while unmonitored 2026-06-13 00:48:40 +00:00
.woodpecker ci: move image build off-infra to GHA -> ghcr (ADR-0002) 2026-06-13 00:44:24 +00:00
alembic feat(fire-target): per-Case FIRE-number solver for the retirement countdown 2026-06-28 11:49:23 +00:00
docs feat(fire-target): per-Case FIRE-number solver for the retirement countdown 2026-06-28 11:49:23 +00:00
fire_planner fix(fire-target): Family/home targets monotonic (kills Family==Household) 2026-07-01 22:42:34 +00:00
frontend fire-planner: filterable date range on the home-page history chart 2026-05-28 09:04:58 +00:00
tests fix(fire-target): Family/home targets monotonic (kills Family==Household) 2026-07-01 22:42:34 +00:00
.dockerignore deploy: combined Dockerfile — FastAPI serves the SPA in prod 2026-05-09 22:25:52 +00:00
.gitignore feat(fire-target): per-Case FIRE-number solver for the retirement countdown 2026-06-28 11:49:23 +00:00
alembic.ini Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00
CONTEXT.md feat(fire-target): per-Case FIRE-number solver for the retirement countdown 2026-06-28 11:49:23 +00:00
Dockerfile fire-planner: copy frontend/.npmrc before npm ci in Dockerfile 2026-05-10 16:54:25 +00:00
PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md docs(fire-planner): document FIRE countdown; flag stale playbook 2026-06-28 11:53:41 +00:00
poetry.lock examples: add asyncpraw dependency (constrain aiosqlite to ^0.17 for asyncpraw compat) 2026-05-28 22:03:27 +00:00
pyproject.toml examples: orchestrator + click CLI (ingest sub-command) 2026-05-28 22:33:41 +00:00
README.md docs(fire-planner): document FIRE countdown; flag stale playbook 2026-06-28 11:53:41 +00:00

README.md

fire-planner

Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services (wealthfolio, payslip-ingest, hmrc-sync) and returns the after-tax probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".

Layout

  • fire_planner/ — package
    • tax/ — per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand, Cyprus, Bulgaria)
    • returns/ — Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap sampler
    • strategies/ — Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPW
    • ingest/ — pulls from wealthfolio / payslip-ingest / hmrc-sync
    • simulator.py — vectorised NumPy MC engine
    • scenarios.py — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy × leave-UK-year × glide)
    • spend_model.py — per-Case real-GBP spend, COL-scaled per country (the FIRE-countdown cases: Solo / Household / Family)
    • geo.py — COL city → tax jurisdiction
    • fire_target.py — solves each Case's "FIRE number" (smallest liquid NW where Guyton-Klinger hits the 99% bar); see docs/adr/0001
    • app.py — FastAPI on-demand /recompute
    • __main__.py — click CLI: ingest, simulate, recompute-all, recompute-fire-targets, migrate

Common commands

poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .

# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head

# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all

# Solve the FIRE-countdown targets (per Case × country) for the wealth
# Grafana dashboard's "FIRE Countdown" section:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-fire-targets --countries all

Schema

Core tables in fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw:

  • account_snapshot — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
  • scenario — Cartesian-product scenario definition
  • mc_run — execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)
  • mc_path — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
  • projection_yearly — deterministic point projection per scenario
  • scenario_summary — denormalised fast-read for Grafana
  • fire_target — solved FIRE number per (Case × country × with-home) for the "FIRE Countdown" section of the wealth Grafana dashboard