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Viktor Barzin 31193faf08
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schema: add life_event, retirement_goal; extend scenario with kind/parent
Two new tables and three new columns on `scenario` to give the
ProjectionLab-style UI a place to land:

- `scenario` gains `kind` (cartesian | user), `name`, `description`,
  `parent_scenario_id`. Existing Cartesian flow keeps `kind='cartesian'`
  by default; user-defined scenarios point `parent_scenario_id` at the
  base they cloned from (NULL for root).

- `life_event` — timed events on a scenario timeline: retirement, kid
  born, mortgage payoff, sabbatical, inheritance, etc. `year_start` and
  `year_end` are scenario-relative (year 0 = today).
  `delta_gbp_per_year` covers ranged effects; `one_time_amount_gbp`
  covers one-shot impacts. `enabled` lets the UI toggle without delete.

- `retirement_goal` — user-defined success criteria (target_nw,
  never_run_out, inheritance, ...). `comparator` + `success_threshold`
  let the goal say "≥ £2M at year 25 in ≥ 90% of paths".

Migration 0002 adds the columns + tables idempotently.
145 tests; mypy strict + ruff clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-09 21:36:58 +00:00
alembic schema: add life_event, retirement_goal; extend scenario with kind/parent 2026-05-09 21:36:58 +00:00
fire_planner schema: add life_event, retirement_goal; extend scenario with kind/parent 2026-05-09 21:36:58 +00:00
tests schema: add life_event, retirement_goal; extend scenario with kind/parent 2026-05-09 21:36:58 +00:00
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fire-planner

Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services (wealthfolio, payslip-ingest, hmrc-sync) and returns the after-tax probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".

Layout

  • fire_planner/ — package
    • tax/ — per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand, Cyprus, Bulgaria)
    • returns/ — Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap sampler
    • strategies/ — Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPW
    • ingest/ — pulls from wealthfolio / payslip-ingest / hmrc-sync
    • simulator.py — vectorised NumPy MC engine
    • scenarios.py — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy × leave-UK-year × glide)
    • app.py — FastAPI on-demand /recompute
    • __main__.pyclick CLI: ingest, simulate, recompute-all, migrate

Common commands

poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .

# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head

# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all

Schema

Six tables in fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw:

  • account_snapshot — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
  • scenario — Cartesian-product scenario definition
  • mc_run — execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)
  • mc_path — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
  • projection_yearly — deterministic point projection per scenario
  • scenario_summary — denormalised fast-read for Grafana