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Add a Monte-Carlo "FIRE number" solver so the wealth dashboard can show a £ countdown to retirement across life-stage cases, in today's money. Viktor wants to see, per country, how far his net worth is from being able to retire for good under three cases — Solo (his spend ×1.5), Household (+Anca ×1.5), Family (+2 kids) — with cost-of-living re-scaling per country and a 99% Guyton-Klinger success bar. - spend_model: per-Case real-GBP spend, COL-scaled (rent + non-rent essentials scale by country; Holidays fixed), ×1.5 safety. Constants sourced live from actualbudget (Viktor) / on-record (Anca). - geo: city -> tax jurisdiction (nomad fallback). - fire_target: binary-search the smallest LIQUID net worth where GK reaches the bar; pension modelled as a tranche unlocking at ~57, kids ramp + optional home as cashflows. New fire_target table (migration 0007) + idempotent upsert. - recompute-fire-targets CLI: solve every Case x country and persist for Grafana. - CONTEXT.md glossary + ADR-0001 (why MC-threshold on liquid NW, not 25x spend). Reuses the existing simulator unchanged (its cashflow hooks already supported pension/kids/home). 345 tests pass; mypy + ruff clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
68 lines
2.6 KiB
Python
68 lines
2.6 KiB
Python
"""upsert_fire_target writes one row per (case, country, with_home, bar)
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and updates in place on re-run (idempotent recompute)."""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from decimal import Decimal
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from sqlalchemy import select
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from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
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from fire_planner.db import FireTarget
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from fire_planner.fire_target import SolveResult, TargetInputs
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from fire_planner.reporters.pg import upsert_fire_target
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from fire_planner.spend_model import Case
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def _inp(**over) -> TargetInputs:
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base = dict(
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case=Case.SOLO,
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country_slug="sofia",
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country_display="Sofia",
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jurisdiction="bulgaria",
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annual_spend_gbp=35_000.0,
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horizon_years=60,
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)
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base.update(over)
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return TargetInputs(**base)
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def _res(target: float, reached: bool = True) -> SolveResult:
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return SolveResult(target_nw_gbp=target, success_at_target=0.992,
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pension_at_unlock_gbp=120_000.0, reached_bar=reached)
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async def test_upsert_inserts_then_updates_in_place(session: AsyncSession) -> None:
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await upsert_fire_target(session, _inp(), _res(900_000.0), n_paths=2_000)
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await session.commit()
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rows = (await session.execute(select(FireTarget))).scalars().all()
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assert len(rows) == 1
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assert rows[0].target_nw_gbp == Decimal("900000.00")
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assert rows[0].case == "solo"
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# Re-running the same key updates, doesn't duplicate. expire_all() forces a
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# DB read past the identity map (session is expire_on_commit=False).
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await upsert_fire_target(session, _inp(), _res(850_000.0), n_paths=5_000)
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await session.commit()
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session.expire_all()
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rows = (await session.execute(select(FireTarget))).scalars().all()
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assert len(rows) == 1
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assert rows[0].target_nw_gbp == Decimal("850000.00")
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assert rows[0].n_paths == 5_000
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async def test_with_home_is_a_distinct_row(session: AsyncSession) -> None:
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await upsert_fire_target(session, _inp(with_home=False), _res(900_000.0), 2_000)
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await upsert_fire_target(session, _inp(with_home=True), _res(1_100_000.0), 2_000)
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await session.commit()
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rows = (await session.execute(select(FireTarget))).scalars().all()
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assert len(rows) == 2
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by_home = {r.with_home: r.target_nw_gbp for r in rows}
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assert by_home[True] > by_home[False]
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async def test_not_reached_bar_is_persisted(session: AsyncSession) -> None:
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await upsert_fire_target(
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session, _inp(case=Case.FAMILY), _res(5_000_000.0, reached=False), 2_000)
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await session.commit()
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row = (await session.execute(select(FireTarget))).scalars().one()
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assert row.reached_bar is False
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