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Add a Monte-Carlo "FIRE number" solver so the wealth dashboard can show a £ countdown to retirement across life-stage cases, in today's money. Viktor wants to see, per country, how far his net worth is from being able to retire for good under three cases — Solo (his spend ×1.5), Household (+Anca ×1.5), Family (+2 kids) — with cost-of-living re-scaling per country and a 99% Guyton-Klinger success bar. - spend_model: per-Case real-GBP spend, COL-scaled (rent + non-rent essentials scale by country; Holidays fixed), ×1.5 safety. Constants sourced live from actualbudget (Viktor) / on-record (Anca). - geo: city -> tax jurisdiction (nomad fallback). - fire_target: binary-search the smallest LIQUID net worth where GK reaches the bar; pension modelled as a tranche unlocking at ~57, kids ramp + optional home as cashflows. New fire_target table (migration 0007) + idempotent upsert. - recompute-fire-targets CLI: solve every Case x country and persist for Grafana. - CONTEXT.md glossary + ADR-0001 (why MC-threshold on liquid NW, not 25x spend). Reuses the existing simulator unchanged (its cashflow hooks already supported pension/kids/home). 345 tests pass; mypy + ruff clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
60 lines
2.7 KiB
Python
60 lines
2.7 KiB
Python
"""add fire_target table for the FIRE-countdown solver
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Revision ID: 0007
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Revises: 0006
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Create Date: 2026-06-28 00:00:00.000000
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One solved FIRE number per (case, country, with_home, bar). The Grafana
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countdown reads target_nw_gbp for the selected country and diffs it against
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current liquid net worth. Seeded on liquid NW; the pension joins as
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pension_at_unlock_gbp (see docs/adr/0001).
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"""
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from collections.abc import Sequence
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import sqlalchemy as sa
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from alembic import op
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revision: str = "0007"
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down_revision: str | None = "0006"
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branch_labels: str | Sequence[str] | None = None
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depends_on: str | Sequence[str] | None = None
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SCHEMA = "fire_planner"
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def upgrade() -> None:
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op.create_table(
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"fire_target",
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sa.Column("id", sa.Integer(), nullable=False, autoincrement=True),
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sa.Column("case", sa.String(length=16), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("country_slug", sa.String(length=64), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("country_display", sa.String(length=128), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("jurisdiction", sa.String(length=32), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("with_home", sa.Boolean(), nullable=False, server_default=sa.text("false")),
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sa.Column("bar", sa.Numeric(4, 3), nullable=False, server_default=sa.text("0.99")),
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sa.Column("strategy", sa.String(length=32), nullable=False,
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server_default=sa.text("'guyton_klinger'")),
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sa.Column("annual_spend_gbp", sa.Numeric(12, 2), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("target_nw_gbp", sa.Numeric(16, 2), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("pension_at_unlock_gbp", sa.Numeric(16, 2), nullable=False,
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server_default=sa.text("0")),
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sa.Column("success_at_target", sa.Numeric(6, 4), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("reached_bar", sa.Boolean(), nullable=False, server_default=sa.text("true")),
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sa.Column("horizon_years", sa.Integer(), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("n_paths", sa.Integer(), nullable=False),
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sa.Column("updated_at", sa.TIMESTAMP(timezone=True), nullable=False,
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server_default=sa.func.now()),
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sa.PrimaryKeyConstraint("id"),
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sa.UniqueConstraint("case", "country_slug", "with_home", "bar",
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name="uq_fire_target_case_country_home_bar"),
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schema=SCHEMA,
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)
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op.create_index("ix_fire_target_case", "fire_target", ["case"], schema=SCHEMA)
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op.create_index("ix_fire_target_country_slug", "fire_target", ["country_slug"], schema=SCHEMA)
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def downgrade() -> None:
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op.drop_index("ix_fire_target_country_slug", table_name="fire_target", schema=SCHEMA)
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op.drop_index("ix_fire_target_case", table_name="fire_target", schema=SCHEMA)
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op.drop_table("fire_target", schema=SCHEMA)
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