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Migrated from monorepo during Forgejo registry consolidation 2026-05-07
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Viktor Barzin b40defacf0
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Details
engine+ui: tax drains the portfolio + Wealthfolio-seeded NW default 
Two fixes:

(1) Simulator: portfolio drain is now `w + tax(w)`, not just `w`.
    The pre-2026-05-10 engine recorded tax in tax_hist but never
    subtracted it from the portfolio, so changing jurisdiction only
    moved the median_lifetime_tax cell — the fan chart, success
    rate, and ending percentiles were identical for UK vs Cyprus
    vs Malaysia. (The PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md memo from 2026-04-26
    explicitly noted this: "Success rate is regime-independent…
    tax doesn't drain the portfolio in this simulator.")

    Mental model now: spending_target is what the user takes home;
    the tax bill is an additional drag on the same pool. Higher-tax
    jurisdictions therefore drain faster and lower the success
    rate, which is the user's intuition. Trinity 4% effectively
    becomes "4% take-home + tax overhead". 188 tests still pass —
    most use Malaysia (0%) or hit the regime-independent code paths.

(2) /what-if and /scenarios/new now pre-fill nw_seed_gbp from
    GET /networth on first mount (when the wealthfolio_sync mirror
    has data), so opening the form starts from the user's real
    portfolio total instead of the £1.5M placeholder. Once the user
    edits the field, subsequent NW refetches don't clobber it
    (nwAutoFilled latch).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 00:21:14 +00:00
alembic schema: add life_event, retirement_goal; extend scenario with kind/parent 2026-05-09 21:36:58 +00:00
fire_planner engine+ui: tax drains the portfolio + Wealthfolio-seeded NW default 2026-05-10 00:21:14 +00:00
frontend engine+ui: tax drains the portfolio + Wealthfolio-seeded NW default 2026-05-10 00:21:14 +00:00
tests engine+api: plumb life events into the simulator 2026-05-09 22:30:33 +00:00
.dockerignore deploy: combined Dockerfile — FastAPI serves the SPA in prod 2026-05-09 22:25:52 +00:00
.gitignore Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00
.woodpecker.yml Phase 4: drop registry.viktorbarzin.me, Forgejo only 2026-05-07 23:17:46 +00:00
alembic.ini Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00
Dockerfile deploy: combined Dockerfile — FastAPI serves the SPA in prod 2026-05-09 22:25:52 +00:00
PLAYBOOK_VIKTOR.md Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00
poetry.lock Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00
pyproject.toml api: expand FastAPI surface for scenarios, networth, life-events, goals, simulate 2026-05-09 21:48:36 +00:00
README.md Initial extraction from monorepo 2026-05-07 17:06:19 +00:00

README.md

fire-planner

Risk-adjusted, tax-minimised FIRE retirement planner. Consumes today's portfolio, savings rate, and RSU vest schedule from sibling services (wealthfolio, payslip-ingest, hmrc-sync) and returns the after-tax probability of success for each combination of jurisdiction, withdrawal strategy, and "year you break UK tax residency".

Layout

  • fire_planner/ — package
    • tax/ — per-jurisdiction tax engines (UK, nomad, Malaysia, Thailand, Cyprus, Bulgaria)
    • returns/ — Shiller 1871+ data + block bootstrap sampler
    • strategies/ — Trinity 4% SWR, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, VPW
    • ingest/ — pulls from wealthfolio / payslip-ingest / hmrc-sync
    • simulator.py — vectorised NumPy MC engine
    • scenarios.py — Cartesian product over (jurisdiction × strategy × leave-UK-year × glide)
    • app.py — FastAPI on-demand /recompute
    • __main__.py — click CLI: ingest, simulate, recompute-all, migrate

Common commands

poetry install
pytest -v
mypy .
ruff check .
yapf --recursive .

# Run migrations against the local DB:
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=postgresql+asyncpg://... alembic upgrade head

# CLI
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner ingest
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner simulate --scenario=cyprus-vpw-leave-y3
DB_CONNECTION_STRING=... python -m fire_planner recompute-all

Schema

Six tables in fire_planner schema on pg-cluster-rw:

  • account_snapshot — daily NW per account (Wealthfolio)
  • scenario — Cartesian-product scenario definition
  • mc_run — execution metadata + summary stats per (scenario, run_at)
  • mc_path — sparse storage (top decile, bottom decile, median)
  • projection_yearly — deterministic point projection per scenario
  • scenario_summary — denormalised fast-read for Grafana